KEY POINTS:
Today is looking like a scorcher for many centres across New Zealand as the same high that roasts southern Australia changes shape and allows winds to increase over the country- lifting temperatures in the east. The west to north west winds over a number of regions will produce very high temperatures from Northland to northern Canterbury while a chilly southerly moves up the South Island reaching Wellington this evening and Hawkes Bay overnight tonight.
A number of places are likely to climb into the 30s today with the most likely candidates being Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. Other regions, like Marlborough and northern Canterbury may also reach 30, or at least the late 20s, if that cold front is late arriving. A number of other regions may also unofficially reach 30 or at least climb into the late 20s, such as eastern parts of Northland, eastern Waikato and Taupo.
A huge area of low pressure in the Southern Ocean is guilty of bringing the cold change to the South Island's southern and eastern coastlines today and temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-teens at best. The weather patterns over the past week or so have, to me, been more Autumn-like with hot and cold changes in eastern areas of both islands - but especially the south. Last year we were protected from these cold outbreaks thanks to a dominant high that held firm over the nation - this year things are far more changeable with the highs hardly sticking around over us. It's a different story in Southern Australia where they can't seem to shake their large high that's bringing constant temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
But my focus over the next few days is going to shift north of New Zealand where the tropics appear to be exploding in to life. Computer models are predicting a number of low pressure systems to form north of New Zealand this week including one that might affect Waitangi celebrations in the north. Read our exclusive Waitangi Day forecast here which discusses this potential 'tropical trouble'. We are at an increased risk of a tropical cyclone or tropical depression affecting us this summer. We'll update the Waitangi forecast again tonight and twice a day throughout next week - so be sure to save the link in your favourites.
One last thing - another reminder about UV rays... I know I bang on about it but with cloudier, cooler and windier conditions it's easy to think you don't need sun-tan lotion. Temperature and wind don't have any impact on the amount of UV rays coming through our atmosphere - and clouds have to be thick before they start to reduce the amount. So don't be fooled especially those in the south and east with the cooler change coming through today and tomorrow - and Aucklanders with the extra clouds and south'west winds.
