Dry soils and low-flowing rivers are predicted for Wairarapa in the next three months, according to the Niwa National Climate Centre.
Figures show the early summer season - November to January - is 80 per cent likely to be average or above average in temperature, and average or below in rainfall, soil moisture and river flows, in the region.
The Niwa predictions show that "average or hotter"conditions and "average or drier" rainfall results are likely across the North Island and for Nelson and Marlborough.
Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa also showed a 45 per cent likelihood of dry soils and low river flows, compared to a 35 per cent chance of an average result and just a 20 per cent chance that soils and rivers would have more water than usual.
According to Niwa the atmosphere has yet to show any significant response to the higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.