"The chances are that it will be at least that warm and possibly warmer," said Niwa principal climate scientist Dr James Renwick.
The La Nina weather system was developing in the tropical Pacific and expected to continue over the summer season, according to Niwa.
It would bring big pressure systems and northerly winds, creating warmer air temperatures than usual, said Renwick.
With a hot summer on the cards, Surf Life Saving New Zealand expected volunteers to be working more hours as people flocked to the beaches, said spokesman Brett Sullivan.
Last year lifeguards worked more than 200,000 volunteer hours on beaches - more than ever before, said Sullivan.
But the warm weather wasn't good news for farmers.
The weather system meant "chances are it will get a little bit drier as well", said Renwick.