Summer forecast has heat all over but dry in South

The Upper North Island is in for a hot and wet three months, but there is no respite in sight for farmers worried about drought on the eastern side of the South Island, according to Niwa's latest predictions.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says air temperatures in most regions of New Zealand are expected to be above average from January to March. Warm sea temperatures are also likely to continue through to March.

As well as higher temperatures in coastal Canterbury and east Otago, those areas can expect normal or below-normal rainfall and below normal or normal soil moisture levels and stream flows.

The National Climate Centre said the tropical Pacific was in a neutral state with some features of weak La Nina conditions. For the tropical cyclone season, normal cyclone activity was expected through to April.

"For New Zealand this means a 70 per cent chance of a cyclone passing somewhere near the country. The risk is greatest after the end of January," the centre said.

The centre's regional predictions for the next three months:

* Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty: Above average temperatures are expected. Normal or above normal rainfall is expected with normal stream flows and soil moisture.

* Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington: Above average temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall is likely. Normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely.

* Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa: Temperatures are forecast to be average or above average. Normal or above normal rainfall and soil moisture is likely, with near normal stream flows expected.

* Nelson, Marlborough, Buller: Above average temperatures are expected, with normal rainfall and soil moisture levels likely over the three months. Normal or below normal river flows are predicted.

* West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland: Above average seasonal temperatures are forecast with normal rainfall likely. Normal or below normal soil moisture levels and river flows are predicted.

- NZPA