New research is set to reveal young people have been harmed by the lowered drinking age, leading to increased pressure on MPs to reverse the change.
Just over four years after the drinking age was lowered, Health Minister Annette King says the change has not worked out: it is impossible to police, younger teens are binge drinking and crashing cars, and it is leading some into hard drugs like the amphetamine P.
And the Associate Health Minister responsible for alcohol, Damien O'Connor, also concedes he would "probably" support a move to increase the age again.
A Herald on Sunday survey of all MPs found those who responded are almost evenly divided on whether they would support returning the drinking age to 20.
That comes amid growing evidence linking the lowering of the age to increased teenage deaths and injuries, and moves by groups such as the Drug Foundation to push for a return to the legal age of 20.
Massey University professor and world alcohol expert Sally Casswell is poised to publish the first major study of the law change's impact to be completed in three years.
Unable to give details until it has been peer-reviewed, Professor Casswell nevertheless indicated it would not be good news for supporters of the lower age.
"I think it will turn out that it did increase the drinking and the alcohol-related harm among that particular age group - the 18 to 19-year-olds," she told the Herald on Sunday.
Her earlier research has found 18-year-olds in Auckland were not asked for ID more than half the times they tried to buy alcohol.
Meanwhile, Transport Ministry figures show that since 18-year-olds have been allowed to drink, a dramatic decline in fatal car accidents involving drink and young drivers, which occurred throughout the 1990s, has been reversed.
The drinking age was lowered under the National Government in 1999, when a raft of measures liberalised alcohol laws.
Any change to the law would involve a conscience vote of MPs - something Mr O'Connor, who voted against lowering the age in 1999, indicated was not likely to succeed.
"I personally would probably be happy (to raise the age). But I'm realistic enough to know that as a major focus of government intervention there are other substantial things we can do and are doing."
He has ordered a review of the monitoring of the alcohol industry and said beefed-up enforcement provisions, so police could carry out "stings" on bars selling alcohol to minors, and education campaigns were already effective.
But Ms King said she would like to see Parliament vote on the issue again - it wouldn't happen before the election but should happen soon after - and she would vote to restore the drinking age to 20.
Prime Minister Helen Clark has been careful not to state a position on the raising of the age, though she voted against lowering it in 1999, attacking then-Prime Minister Jenny Shipley for promoting the move. She is also known to hold a conservative position when it comes to alcohol.
Several Labour MPs who voted against lowering the age in 1999 now say they would not support raising it, claiming it is too late to change it back.
However their Progressive coalition partners, Jim Anderton and Matt Robson, who initially voted to lower the age, have reversed their positions conceding that in the face of public health evidence, they were wrong.
Mr Robson has drafted a private member's bill to raise the age.
- Herald on Sunday
Study shows drinking age harms teens
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