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Home / New Zealand

Steady as she goes

By Paula Oliver
1 Jun, 2007 05:00 PM10 mins to read

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Helen clark launches the Team Up initiative at the Gisborne Community Early Education Centre.

Helen clark launches the Team Up initiative at the Gisborne Community Early Education Centre.

KEY POINTS:

Never lose your humour. Even when the political polls are bad - and trailing somewhere near 20 points behind your rival is very bad - don't lose the ability to laugh.

And so it is with Prime Minister Helen Clark, outwardly at least, as she uses a chunk
of Parliament's two-week recess to go to talk to the New Zealanders who will next year decide whether to give her a fourth term in charge of the country.

This week the Prime Minister was winding her way around the East Coast, visiting Ruatoria and Gisborne, cracking jokes, shaking as many hands as she could, and telling people she was there to listen.

If Clark is spooked by the threat of National's fresh-faced leader John Key, she wasn't letting on.

"Look, in politics I've been through the worst of times and the best of times," she told the Weekend Herald during a break from her rigorous Gisborne schedule.

"And this is nowhere near the worst of times," she added, breaking into a long and loud laugh.

Labour slipped to 17.3 points behind National in the Herald DigiPoll survey taken shortly after the May 17 Budget, and in TVNZ's latest Colmar Brunton poll the gap was an even wider 25 points.

Clark herself fell behind Key in the preferred Prime Minister stakes in both polls.

Times have been worse for Clark. She vividly recalls the "rugged" time when her party registered just 14 per cent support in the 1990s, and says her own rating as preferred Prime Minister sagged to just 1 per cent.

She battled through eventually to become Prime Minister, and now after fighting off the challenge of National's former leader Don Brash, Clark is locked in an intense new battle with Key.

Within the Labour Party there is some doubt that the current popularity gap between it and National is actually as large as the Herald and TVNZ polls showed.

But notably, there is an acceptance that there is at least a gap - though maybe nearer to 10 points.

Senior Labour figures who previously seemed to doubt National's surging popularity under Key are now openly talking about a "sticky" past few months, where their party's backing of the controversial smacking legislation dented its support and where issues such as tax cuts, and law and order returned to the forefront of people's minds.

It is a time of reflection, but not panic, within Labour.

Clark is confident her party can reverse its fortunes, something political commentators say must happen within about six months if Labour is to avoid the prospect of a National-led Government becoming dangerously embedded in voters' minds.

Voters can expect a few gentle prods of reminder in coming months from Labour about what has changed for the better under its watch.

As the Prime Minister repeatedly told audiences on the East Coast, unemployment has dived and local people have more money in their pockets than when Labour came to power in 1999.

"A lot of positive things are happening," she told Radio Ngati Porou during a 15-minute stint on the iwi radio station.

"There are some issues we've got to work through, as we are - but there's a very big programme going on here."

Later, after gulping down a hearty breakfast of scrambled eggs with around 25 of the East Coast's small business owners, Clark worked her way around the table and recited scenarios of the Government's flagship Working For Families scheme in which whanau would get an extra $190 or more a week.

The very fact she needed to do this was perhaps evidence of one of Labour's biggest problems - that people have happily swallowed what has already been given to them and now want to know what is coming next.

Clark is acutely aware that Labour needs to get out and "tell our story".

The story she wants ministers to go and tell is one of low unemployment, Working For Families assistance, cheaper doctor visits, paid parental leave, four weeks' minimum annual leave, the upcoming push for 20 hours' free early childhood education, and now the turbocharged KiwiSaver scheme.

Clark feels that ministers are getting out and about and working hard but perhaps are not getting the media recognition in the places they visit that they could be. She wants staff to be proactive about making sure local media know when someone from the Beehive is coming, and know what they are doing.

We have to tell our story, and part of telling our story is that all these things happen because there is a Labour government," she said.

"None of these things can be taken for granted - none of them.

"Because if other people's top priority is cutting spending to find room for big tax cuts, then these things can't happen," she said, in a clear indication of a likely plank of Labour's election strategy next year.

Indeed, the strategy to win the next election will probably see the gentle reminders of what has been good under Labour ramp up to another level next year, when the message will likely be hammered that there is much at risk if Labour is voted out.

That argument is clouded by the fact that National under Key is adopting many of Labour's policies.

To combat that, and to show that Labour is not bereft of ideas, party insiders want to come up with a fresh policy to kneecap National's election push, in the way interest free student loans did in the 2005 race.

Three to five important points of difference may be brought forward and taken into the election by Labour, of a magnitude that would let it argue that Key could not adopt them as well as offer big personal tax cuts.

The wide appeal Key is having was evident as Clark journeyed to Ruatoria's Ngata Memorial College on Wednesday, where she spoke to students of all ages and delivered an enthusiastic, off-the-cuff speech encouraging them all to stay at school and to grasp opportunities.

Only weeks before, Key had visited the same college, and as reporters tracking Clark spoke to the students, it became evident that some of them liked Key very much - though there were others who preferred Clark.

Clark has described Key as having a "rather long" honeymoon period, and argued that although people now say Brash was hopeless and easier to overcome, they weren't saying that three years ago.

"Brash was a real threat," she said.

"Brash touched a vein and he milked that," she added, referring to Brash's infamous Orewa speech about race relations in early 2004.

Now, Clarke says, she is in a completely different situation.

"This is a situation with a fellow who says 'I'm going to do everything they do but you'll get a big tax cut as well'," she said.

"That isn't real, and sooner or later the fact that it's not real will penetrate."

Labour is not convinced Key can maintain his momentum and can keep going without making a mistake. Clark says she has noticed similarities in the way Key has tackled National's leadership and in the way Britain's Conservative leader David Cameron is operating. She points out that Cameron is "starting to run into very heavy water now as people see through the superficiality".

As Labour waits and wills that to happen, eyes are turning to its own rejuvenation and the need to show that in its third term, it hasn't run out of ideas.

Between eight and 10 MPs are tipped to announce their retirements before next year's election, paving the way for some well-known faces the party claims are hammering down its door to get on its candidate list.

Just two MPs have gone so far, Georgina Beyer and Jim Sutton, although Marian Hobbs has also indicated she will not be standing in 2008.

It is hoped within the party that the rejuvenation process will be without any ugly spats, although one or two candidates for retirement may need a small push. Questions won't be asked of them until after the final electorate boundaries are confirmed.

The push to freshen Labour's image could also extend to the Cabinet room, although nothing is likely to happen there immediately because Clark is wary of looking as if she is panicking about the party's polling predicament.

Shane Jones is widely tipped as a top contender for promotion from the backbench to a ministerial role.

Asked if she would reshuffle her Cabinet this year, Clark said she did not have anything planned.

"But normally, you'd be making some changes in the run up to the election, it's just a question of when that is," she said.

"I think the important thing right now is for people to see that we're not rattled and distressed by the prolonged honeymoon. That we're taking stock, we're out and about, like I'm doing today, and do every week."

The emphasis on listening to the people and telling Labour's "story" was clear as Clark addressed a community forum in Gisborne, where she told the audience she and the accompanying group of ministers were there to get feedback on how things were going, and to talk about the next set of issues.

Certainly, Clark and Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia were well received on the East Coast, despite a handful of protesters who confronted the Prime Minister on the main street of Ruatoria to vent anger about everything from water rights to religion and tax cuts.

A good-humoured Clark carried on and found time late on Wednesday to pay her respects at a tangi for former All Black John Collins, a well known local identity,while en route from Ruatoria to Gisborne.

The next day she provoked laughter at the Gisborne community forum when she took to her feet as people introduced themselves and announced with a grin and a wave: "I'm Helen, I'm Prime Minister."

The veteran politician knows she has time to turn things around, and insiders claim there is a remarkably good mood within the Labour caucus despite the party's situation.

Part of the reason for this is that party membership is buoyant and the youth wing of Labour is thriving. Another reason is there are precedents in other countries of incumbent parties coming back from behind and claiming elections - think Australia and Queensland Premier, Labour's Peter Beattie.

The party is also buoyed by Clark herself, known to be someone you write off at your peril.

Her determination was on display as she stood in the school hall at Ngata Memorial College, sharing with students her experience of finishing school and looking towards university.

"In school years you can see no limit," she told the students.

In her school only one boy had been to university, and no one in her family had ever been.

"Was that an obstacle to a determined person like me? No.

"If we believe we can do it, we can do it," she said.

Words the Prime Minister could be keeping in mind as she tries to convince window shopping voters now looking at the National leader not to take the final step and buy.

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