KEY POINTS:
Interest in who will succeed retiring Manukau Mayor Barry Curtis is hotting up, with four contenders so far throwing their hats in the ring.
Sir Barry announced on Tuesday he would not seek re-election on October 13 after eight terms running the country's third-biggest city.
So far, the declared contenders are Arthur Anae, Len Brown, Craig Little and Dick Quax. They all have local government experience.
Although Sir Barry refused to say who he wanted to wear the mayoral chain, Mr Brown is picked to win by most of the experienced Manukau political observers contacted yesterday.
Sir Barry's exit was anticipated by the Peoples Choice party, which backs Mr Quax, when it conducted a poll across all wards of the city.
Campaign chairman Hamish Stevens said the result of the poll of 638 citizens showed Mr Quax, a serving councillor, was the leading contender to replace Sir Barry.
Mr Quax was 5 per cent ahead of his nearest rival, Len Brown. Mr Stevens said Mr Quax had 24.8 per cent, Mr Brown 20.6 per cent, Mr Little 14.9 per cent and Mr Anae 5.4 per cent.
"There's still a lot of undecided voters - some 30 per cent.
"Dick knows there is a lot of hard work to be done and he is door-knocking throughout the city and getting a lot of support in Botany, Pakuranga, Howick and also Papatoetoe and Manurewa."
The Lysander Research poll had a 4 per cent margin of error.
When Mr Quax ran for the mayoralty in 2004, a Peoples Choice poll in August showed he was the man Sir Barry needed to beat and he had the greater support in the eastern wards of Howick, Botany and Pakuranga.
In the event, Sir Barry got 21,104 votes, Len Brown 20,538 and Mr Quax 18,380.
Mr Stevens said Mr Quax had raised his profile since last election and had helped Peoples Choice candidates to win three byelections for council positions in the current term.
Despite the optimism in the Quax camp, Mr Brown is touted as Sir Barry's successor for reasons ranging from his track record - he was on the council for 12 years - to the notion that a year of knocking on doors means voters will remember his name.
His campaign machinery is also described as skilled in getting people out to vote in a city where fewer than 40 per cent bother to return the postal ballot forms.
Mr Brown could also benefit from a perception that Mr Quax and Mr Little are competing for the same largely conservative group of voters.
But Mr Little said he had been overwhelmed by the support expressed during his public outings, including people from different ethnic groups and the Labour Party.
He said he had 20 years' experience in local government, including currently representing Manukau on the Auckland Regional Council.
A further advantage, he said, was the number of people who recalled his former career in television.
Mr Anae, a former National list MP and a current councillor, said he would kick off his campaign on September 1 but people already gave him a "very good feeling" about his support.
Veteran Manukau councillor Noel Burnside said the election boiled down to who would make the best leader.
"Sir Barry has managed to keep together people with differing views and relate to all people of all walks of life, whether they be someone complaining they have no job or a top businessman wanting to set up in Manukau," he said.
Waitakere Mayor Bob Harvey said mayors regarded Manukau as the most difficult New Zealand city to run.
"Sir Barry's legacy is his extraordinary leadership of such as complex array of cultures and social groups."
In the running
* Arthur Anae, Len Brown, Craig Little, Dick Quax.
* Nominations close noon, August 24.
* Postal voting forms delivered September 21.
* Voting closes October 13.
