So it begins - not with a bang but a whimper

So, he wasn't bluffing after all. Michael Cullen's first Budget limbo-danced as low as its advance low-key billing. So much so that Labour faithful, waiting a quarter of a century for a real Labour Budget, won't be singing the Red Flag in celebration of this one.

The no-surprises document was swiftly pigeonholed as responsible - but dull. This is a marked departure from tradition. Normally, new Finance Ministers begin their careers with a bang and end with a whimper.

But Dr Cullen never promised a whiz-bang Ruth Richardson-style Mother of All Budgets; it is a Budget of which his mother will be proud. Nice and safe, Michael; nothing harsh to upset the punters.

Lacking king-hits, the document still packs punch. And not just in help for poor Maori and fledgling industries in the provinces looking for a bit of a handup.

As expected, there is more money for hospital surgery, there will be applause for fixing rundown mental health services; there is a freeze on tertiary fees.

Dr Cullen thus claims it is a "something for everyone" Budget. Translation: Labour hasn't forgotten flighty middle-income voters, many of whom preferred restoring publicly funded social services to National's trickle-up tax cuts.

Trouble is the Budget fails to excite because much of the extra spending was long-signalled through the commitments on Labour's election pledge-card. Yet, Labour is making a trust-building virtue of being predictable and keeping promises.

And preaching fiscal prudence - although that presents a problem down the track. Having spent $1.2 billion this year, Dr Cullen is left with chicken-feed of $575 million to dish out in election year. Not even Sir William Birch was that parsimonious.

Such a tight spending limit will require the self-discipline of an "Iron Chancellor," the nickname Dr Cullen clumsily accorded himself yesterday in an attempt to dress himself as business-friendly.

Will business believe him? Probably not. But business should understand one thing - neither Dr Cullen nor Helen Clark hung around in Opposition for a decade to go down in the history books as another failed one-term Labour Government. And they are not going to risk being accused of squandering the economic bounty they inherited from National.

Their cautious instincts underpin this Budget's fiscal caution. Both politicians are economically conservative and socially progressive. This Budget is a launching-pad for reaching long-term goals - building a high-tech, export-based economy, rescuing the urban-based underclass of Maori and Pacific Islanders, and accumulating reserves in a baby-boomer superannuation fund.

All that will take more than one term to make headway. And if getting there requires Clark and Cullen to be boringly orthodox in the meantime, so be it. And the Alliance had better not forget it either.

Budget 2000 feature

Minister's budget statement

Budget speech