Ski field operators are hopeful the cooler regime of our incoming El Niño-influenced winter will make for healthier slopes this year, after last season’s record warm, wet conditions proved disastrous at Mt Ruapehu. Photo / Sarah Ivey
Ski field operators are hopeful the cooler regime of our incoming El Niño-influenced winter will make for healthier slopes this year, after last season’s record warm, wet conditions proved disastrous at Mt Ruapehu. Photo / Sarah Ivey
Ski field operators are hopeful the cooler regime of our incoming El Niño-influenced winter will make for healthier slopes this year, after last season’s record warm, wet conditions proved disastrous at Mt Ruapehu.
While the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) is still a month away from issuing its winter outlook, forecasters have been discussing the potential for a markedly colder season in 2023 – owing to a long-awaited change from La Niña’s milder influence.
In contrast to its counterpart climate pattern La Niña, El Niño - increasingly expected to form up this year – tends to bring more southerly winds over winter, causing colder temperatures across the country.
New Zealand’s most recent El Niño winter happened to be nearly a decade ago, in 2015, and before that, 2009 – making these the only winters in the past 13 years in which seasonal temperatures finished up cooler than average.
While climate change’s warming trend made it unlikely that we’d experience a winter as chilly as those El Niño years from several decades ago, forecasters expect a noticeable change from our last three record-hot seasons.
That news couldn’t be more welcome for the beleaguered operators of Mt Ruapehu’s ski fields, who were last year forced to close Tūroa early and dismiss about 130 staff amid another abysmal season for snow-making.
“We’re eagerly expecting that change out of La Niña into El Niño: it’s certainly a more favourable temperature cycle for snow-making, but we’re still reliant on good precipitation on the mountain,” Ruapehu Alpine Lifts chief executive Jono Dean said.
A cooler regime enabled the mountain’s ski operators to “build and hold” ski trails for longer, and better use what snow could be captured and made from winter dumps.
“It means you get a lot less snow attrition, and ensures you can create greater mounds and piles, which you can push out and use to hold trails for longer,” Dean said.
“That’s certainly a strong contributor to the overall ski experience, but importantly, it provides us longevity over the season.”
Over what was New Zealand’s wettest winter to date, rain washed away Tūroa’s snow base three times.
“With this year’s particular cycle, it’s anticipated that level of precipitation would convert directly into natural snow, or at least afford us the opportunity to make snow.”
While Ruapehu Alpine Lifts (RAL) remains in voluntary administration - with at least one bid on the table for a buy-out - the company is due to soon begin selling season passes.
“We’re in a bit of limbo period at the moment... but certainly, all factors are leaning toward what we’d anticipate to be a pretty positive season, and one that we’ve really been looking forward to for the last three years.”
Ruapehu Alpine Lifts chief executive Jono Dean.
Further south, Cardrona and Treble Cone experiences general manager Laura Hedley was similarly hoping for a solid ski season.
“The weather and the climate outlook is definitely something that’s always on our mind – we can get everything ready for a reason and get all our staff in place, but we really are at the mercy of Mother Nature,” she said.
“We had a great start to our season last year, with a lot of snow really quickly. If we can get a cold season this year, with a bit of precipitation, we’ll be in a good space.”
The 2023 season opens over June in southern ski areas, and in early July at Ruaphehu’s Whakapapa and Tūroa fields.
“Southerly winds are not something that have occurred in great frequency over the past few winters, so if you’re an avid skier, I guess it’ll be refreshing to have more of those in the mix this year,” Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said.
“It’s important to point out though, that’s only one ingredient – the other element needed for snow-making is moisture.”
While southerlies were important for cooling things down, air flowing up from the Southern Ocean typically didn’t carry as much moisture as other wind regimes.
“That means we’d still need moisture coming in from the west or north to link in with those southerlies, or else you’ll only get lighter accumulations of snow, rather than heavy dumps,” he said.
“In saying that – we still do have a marine heatwave in parts of the wider region, which may help offset some of that southerly action bringing the drier air, while allowing for a little bit more moisture.”
Last winter, southern ski fields were fortunate to have La Niña-like surges of moisture from the north clashing with cold air masses travelling from the south.
“That’s what caused some really big dumps down there last year, but this winter, those northerly pushes aren’t likely to occur anywhere [near] that frequency – so it’ll all come down to how much moisture will be in the fronts moving up the South Island.”
