KEY POINTS:
Buyers unsure of when and where to purchase a home are being targeted by a new website that launches this week.
SuburbWatch (www.suburbwatch.co.nz), which officially debuts on Tuesday, is a paid subscription system that uses technical analysis of house price data to give insight into price trends for Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch neighbourhoods. It uses traffic light-style signs to alert clients when it is best to buy, hold or sell.
The site is the brainchild of investment property analyst Kieran Trass of Hybrid Group, and has taken him six years to bring to the marketplace.
It's another tool in a growing list of online methods to supposedly help property owners sort fact from fiction in the real-estate market. It joins the ranks of indicators like the 8-month-old Mike Pero Mortgages-Infometrics Property Cycle Indicator (PCI)(www.infometricsproperty.co.nz - see below for a direct link to the site), aimed at people wanting to check the state of the property cycle if they are thinking of buying or selling property. PCI, however, is designed primarily for residential investors and is published quarterly online. It provides a simple number between minus 10 and plus 10 depending on the state of the market: a minus 10 shows a strong downturn, while plus 10 shows a strong upturn.
Real estate agencies have started to join the trend.
Ray White recently became the first real estate company in New Zealand to introduce school zoning to its website, allowing buyers to view a collection of properties within the desired school zone. The company's site also allows aerial viewing of property listings.
Auckland Property Investors Association vice-president John May said such services were a sign of an increasingly sophisticated market meeting the changing needs of the public.
"The industry has really come of age in the last 7-8 years," he said. "It seems to have become more galvanised - people are realising the possibilities and niche markets."
Auckland-based Trass said his website was born out of hearing too many "horror stories" about people buying property at the wrong time and his own frustration at the lack of accurate and unbiased information when he was considering when and where to buy investment properties.
"It seemed that whoever I asked 'is it a good time to buy in this or that suburb?' everyone had some vested interest or opinion based on emotions rather than fact," he said. "Often those opinions proved incorrect; just look at the so-called property crash we were warned about way back in 2004." (Property values have climbed by 40 per cent or more since then.)
His data has been sourced both from the state-owned Quotable Value Ltd and from information from hundreds and thousands of properties sold through real estate agents over a 10-year period.
"For the first time ever we have an accurate house price measure on a localised basis," Trass said.
"We are applying known statistical analysis methods that have been known for decades to trade other assets like shares and commodities."
Information on the website will be updated every three months but Trass said this should not be considered a negative. "These are long-term moving trends which give us plenty of warning. Unlike shares - where you can wake up tomorrow and your $1 share is worth 18 cents - property doesn't do that; it's not as volatile. It is a slow-moving asset."
The subscription for SuburbWatch ranges from $29.95 for a single suburb per quarter or $59.95 for a year, to as low as $7 per suburb if you subscribe to a whole region for a year.
Trass said he expected his website would get a mixed reception from real estate agents but would be welcomed by Kiwis seeking reassurance about one of the biggest financial decision of their lives. "People want transparency in this industry," he said. "SuburbWatch tells it like it is - whether it's good news, bad news or indifferent."
* Sunday Homes magazine will feature exclusive extracts each week of information from SuburbWatch, starting from April 15.
