Simon Wilson: Auckland mayoral race - Phil Goff v John Tamihere, the first poll numbers

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff.

COMMENT:

It's the battle of the former Labour MPs in the race for the Auckland mayoralty: Phil Goff versus John Tamihere.

Goff is the well-known incumbent, standing on his record, and he has to defend it. He can't conjure up a whole new raft of policies without facing questions about why he isn't pursuing them already.

Tamihere also has support, informally, from some National Party people. But it's complicated.

We're in a time where, around the world, the tide suddenly runs out on establishment politicians like Goff.

Now the results of an internal first poll show one candidate has already surged out to a strong lead. Is the gap already too big to close?

Phil Goff has a big lead on John Tamihere in the race to become the next mayor of Auckland, according to the Goff campaign's internal poll results.

In a poll conducted in April, Goff was said to be preferred by 55 per cent of those who expressed a view, with Tamihere at less than half that, on 22 per cent, and twice-defeated independent John Palino on 11 per cent.

The information comes from a source close to Goff and is, in my view, likely to be reliable. No other polling data has been released from any source.

Is 55 to 22 too big a gap for Tamihere to overcome? Conventional wisdom would say yes. Goff has a big war chest (including $250,000 or so left over from the previous election) and access to an organised team of volunteers through the Labour Party, which has endorsed him.

Perhaps most important of all, that 55 per cent suggests voters are not as dismissive of Goff as his critics think. He's not, as they may have hoped, fighting an uphill battle to keep the mayoralty.

The "don't knows" were excluded from the data. Are they important? Possibly. But with a low turnout for council elections (they'll be doing well to get over 40 per cent), "don't knows" in April may simply turn into "won't votes" when the election rolls around in October.

Even if they do turn out, there's a good chance they'll split in much the same way as everyone else.

John Tamihere and Christine Fletcher.

But that's all conventional wisdom. Tamihere has a few things going for him. One is that he's in the early stages of trying to set his campaign alight. He's throwing down policies like detonators – Auckland Transport is terrible! Sell the port! Council is corrupt! – to see which ones strike a decent spark.

In a couple of months' time, when campaigning gets really serious, he could have a platform of issues he knows will light up the electorate, and will have quietly discarded the ones that don't.

For Goff, it's not like that. He's the well-known incumbent, standing on his record, and he has to defend it. He can't conjure up a whole new raft of policies without facing questions about why he isn't pursuing them already.

Tamihere also has support, informally, from some National Party people. But it's complicated.

Last election some high-profile National people set up Auckland Future (AF), but it did badly and was even opposed in some wards by Communities & Residents (C&R), which also had high-profile National Party backers. Messy.

AF is not standing for the governing body or mayoralty this year. C&R has announced a ticket that includes councillor Christine Fletcher, who is standing again for the renamed Albert-Eden-Puketāpapa ward. She's also running for deputy mayor on Tamihere's ticket.

But this doesn't mean C&R supports Tamihere. Councillor Desley Simpson is standing again for C&R in the single-seat Orakei ward, and while she declines to endorse any mayoral candidate she has made her antipathy to Tamihere clear. There must have been quite a lively debate inside C&R on both the Tamihere candidacy and the propriety of Fletcher standing simultaneously on two tickets.

Fletcher and Simpson are both members of the National Party, as is former mayoral candidate Mark Thomas, who is standing for C&R alongside Fletcher in Albert-Eden-Puketāpapa. He's declined to express a view on mayoral candidates.

The biggest thing Tamihere may have going for him, however, is not the backing of some National Party types. It's the lure of populism. We're in a time where, around the world, the tide suddenly runs out on establishment politicians like Goff. People can decide quite quickly they want to support the candidate who wants to shake things up. They can also lie to pollsters about it.

We saw some of that in the recent Australian general election; we saw a lot of it in 2016 with Donald Trump.

If you were Matt McCarten, Tamihere's campaign manager, you'd say 22 per cent isn't bad right now. You'd be wanting that to start changing pretty soon, though. But you would be disappointed that Goff starts with more than 50 per cent support. It's his election to lose.

McCarten is a former leading member and strategist of the Alliance and, more recently, the Unite Union. He was also chief of staff for Andrew Little when Little was leader of the Labour Party. A dyed-in-the-wool union-oriented lefty. He's running Tamihere's campaign with help from, among others, long-time National stalwart, and AF instigator, Michelle Boag. How does that work?

McCarten says after keeping the five-party Alliance together, with everyone from social crediters to radical greenies in the mix, sitting at the table with Boag isn't hard at all.

Is that true? Tamihere says he wants to shake up council officialdom and deliver better outcomes for the city's poor. That's a good fit with McCarten.

But Tamihere also wants to disrupt the transport and urban development plans that Auckland Council and the Government largely see eye-to-eye on: building a more compact city with a much stronger public transport network providing a kind of skeleton for development. That plays directly to Boag's objective, to align the council politically with the National Party.

As for Tamihere himself, he tells some audiences he's the leftist candidate and others he's more on the right. Who knows, that could play well for him. Lots of voters say they're sick of the old left/right divides.

As for the rest of the governing body of council, to date only one councillor – Penny Hulse in Waitakere – has announced their retirement. Only one other is currently expected to follow suit – Sir John Walker in Manurewa-Papakura.

That's a low turnover rate. Half the council has been there for three terms now, and more than half, including the mayor, are over 60. All but four are over 50. I don't mean to suggest that older people have little to contribute, but the combined effect of their incumbency is to block the way for other generations. They have much to contribute too.

There'd be an outcry if the average age of MPs was as high as it is for Auckland councillors. Frankly, it's time for more of them to move on.

The City Vision (CV) group, representing Labour, the Greens and others at the local level, has decided to try to move one of them on anyway. In the single-seat Waitematā ward it's selected local board chairwoman Pippa Coom as its candidate, instead of endorsing sitting councillor Mike Lee, who has enjoyed CV support in the past. Coom is about 25 years younger than Lee.

Lee has been an elected official in Auckland since 1992 and has not yet revealed his plans. But if he stands again it will be the first time he has faced a serious, party-backed challenger from the centre-left.

Why the split? City Vision has, in general, supported the Auckland Plan and plans to make the city centre more pedestrian-focused. Lee, on the other hand, has voted against pretty much every city-centre initiative put to council, and for that matter pretty much everything else Goff supports.

Or, to put it another way, Pippa Coom rides a bicycle everywhere she can. Mike Lee is the champion of that heritage tram in the Wynyard Quarter.