Finance Minister Grant Robertson has a very big budget to announce this year. Photo / Michael Craig
OPINION:
Forgive me, but I'm angry. And frightened, because of what we've learned about our country these last two years. I don't mean the rise of destructive American-style extremism in our politics, although that is also frightening.
I mean what we now know about the effect of 30 years of underspending on core services and infrastructure. The deep damage to health services, transport, housing, education, water, crime – and they're just the things that hog the headlines – has been laid bare.
Wherever you look, the economy, our social services and their administration need structural reform, a refreshed understanding of the goals and so much more investment. And yet the task seems almost impossible.
One reason for that: it's urgent. The "best" solutions for most problems are generational, but we don't have the luxury of time. Whether it's the waiting list for social housing, educational underachievement or our still-rising carbon emissions, big fixes are needed now.
But we're really bad at now, or even soon. Where are the promised new homes on the Unitec site? Why can't even the budgeted allocations for everything from mental health to victim support to cycleways get spent?
Another reason: there isn't enough money to do what needs to be done. That means we need a serious commitment to low-cost options and a ruthless focus on priorities.
Third, we have a public service that is far too often incapable of even thinking like this, let alone planning and acting accordingly.
I know many talented officials, in central and local government. But their organisations and far too many of their senior staff are beset by inertia.
They favour gold-plated solutions because they lack the courage to take risks. They don't think creatively and are dismissive of emerging technologies. They rely on sector interest groups for "expert" guidance, despite the obvious conflicts of interest.
And the politicians are beholden to these officials. Why has no one stepped up and allowed health workers with expiring visas to stay?
And there's a fourth factor: the neverending clamour from people opposed to new ideas and change. Politicians find it all too easy to confuse that with deeper public opinion.
Want an emblematic example of these problems? Look no further than the light-rail line proposed to run between downtown Auckland and Māngere.
To be clear, that line would not be a bad thing to have. In fact, it would be great if we had it.
But that doesn't mean we should spend at least 10 years building an 11km-long tunnel for it. And whether it costs the $15 billion announced by the Government or the $29 billion suggested by Treasury, it's far too much.
Rather than treating congestion and carbon emissions as urgent problems, that project will delay our response to them. Especially as it will suck funds away from other options that could have quicker and larger impacts.
Tunnelled light rail is old technology, even if it's driverless. But it's favoured because it's a really big construction project, proposed by agencies that have the ear of the transport construction sector. It won't disrupt Dominion Rd shopping, even though there are cheaper and better ways to avoid that harm.
And many people still call it "a tram to the airport", thus disparaging not just this project but the whole value of better mass transit.
And all of these things mean it's unlikely to happen anyway. We're wasting time and the Government is squandering public support. This is exactly how not to progress.
Right now, Finance Minister Grant Robertson is writing his 2022 Budget. It's a big one: the budget in which he defines how we emerge from this pandemic into a world of inflation, fast-growing inequity, climate change and war in Europe.
Here are seven things he could include.
1. Take the GST off vegetables and fruit
It's not hard, with barcode technology. It's not radical, with Australia and other countries already doing it. There are complications around the edges, but so what? That's a minor problem compared with the advantages.
2. Supersize the prefab housing sector
The new Enabling Housing Supply law will lead to more houses being built. But there are still unnecessary blockages to consenting and changing land use. Kainga Ora and community housing providers require more funding to build more homes.
Most of all, new technologies need to be fast-tracked and supersized. That includes prefab housing and the use of new materials in insulation and other parts of construction.
The goal is cheap, fast and good. It's a lazy myth that we can't have all three.
3. Health system reform
This one is already happening! Is there anyone, apart from Shane Reti, who still denies health structures are in urgent need of an overhaul?
4. Pour money into poor schools
We know that two years of Covid have profoundly disrupted children's educational and social development. And we've had more news this week that literacy levels are falling. These things affect all schools but especially those serving the poor parts of town.
It's time to stop pretending that the kids are okay and step-change the way these schools are funded and resourced.
5. Vastly extend the public transport subsidy
It's great that fares have been cut in half for three months. But it should be made permanent (or possibly free and permanent) and backed by funding for more bus routes, more frequency and other measures. Instead of having as few large diesel buses as "necessary", why not have lots more minibuses on all the suburban and feeder routes?
For public transport to work well, it also needs non-budget measures like priority bus lanes on all arterial routes and other limits on where cars can go.
6. Free e-bikes
Compared to digging multi-billion dollar tunnels and buying electric buses at $650,000 a pop (yes, true), e-bikes are really cheap.
They're not for everyone, but what would happen if e-bikes were free or heavily subsidised for all who want them?
Stop all other spending on new urban transport infrastructure. Convert road space cheaply, with sticks and concrete dividers, to provide more bike lanes. Subsidise local manufacturing to meet demand. Include cargo e-bikes, and not just for commercial use: kids ride in them very well too.
See what happens. It might be astonishing what super-expensive new things we suddenly don't need to build. Remember that people who still want or need to drive will be among the beneficiaries.
7. Tax relief where it's needed
National Party leader Christopher Luxon has proposed adjusting the tax regime to counter "bracket creep". That's fine, although not if it's done the way he suggests.
He also proposes a roll-back of the tax restraints on property speculators.
The net effect of Luxon's plan is to give a larger tax break (about $2 billion) to the top-earning three per cent than to the bottom-earning 66 per cent. He even had the nerve to say his plan would help the "average Kiwi family": if you're earning, say, $55,000, he wants to give you a whole $800 extra. Per year.
Luxon also maintains debt is out of control and he wants a return to offshore drilling.
This is laughable. National has a popular new leader and his response to the crisis we're in right now is to advocate more of the very same policies that caused it. It's like he's pretending the last 30 years didn't happen. Like he's never even heard of public-health emergencies, or poverty, or climate change.
Here's a better plan: make the first $15,000 or $20,000 of everyone's income tax-free. Everyone benefits, especially those who need it most. What about it, Grant?
'He has disregarded our voice and continued with this divisive kaupapa.'