Showdown - how to be a winner

By ANDREW LAXON

Tonight is the last chance for Labour leader Helen Clark and National's Bill English to swing uncommitted voters their way in a televised debate.

And judging from the latest opinion polls, a lot of votes are still up for grabs. Monday's Herald-DigiPoll survey suggests support for the big parties has dropped by about 17 per cent since the start of the campaign, while the combined support for the minor parties - New Zealand First, Act, the Greens and United - has doubled.

Yet the polls also suggest wild fluctuations for both the Greens and United. Some wavering voters show signs of switching to whichever party makes the best impression each week, witness Peter Dunne's worm-taming performance on the Holmes debate last week.

So both Clark and English know that a strong finish is essential if they want the 17 per cent of voters who have defected to small parties to "come home", as National puts it.

To achieve this, they need to make a big impression tonight. The format on TV3's hour-long debate at 9.30pm, hosted by John Campbell, will be virtually identical to Monday's TVNZ debate with Paul Holmes.

The Herald asked two former political insiders and PR experts - Richard Griffin, TVNZ communications manager and former press secretary to National leader Jim Bolger, and Bob Harvey, Waitakere Mayor and former Labour president and party adman - to help out the leaders with some last-minute advice.

1. Preparation: how do I swot for this one?


New Zealand politicians have traditionally treated preparation for televised debates less seriously than their American counterparts. Griffin says there was an attitude, especially in National, that "coaching" was somehow putting answers in the leader's mouth.

"Most politicians, because they've convinced themselves that they're experts on almost everything, feel they don't have to do any preparation. They can go straight into something and it'll all come naturally."

He notes approvingly that this has changed under Clark, who takes advice and understands that she can't just wing it. But party leaders, he observes with a hint of frustration, have not always understood the importance of TV debates in the past. Like his old boss? "We won't go into details."

Clark: Has cleared the whole day after three morning radio interviews to rest and prepare for the debate, as she normally does. Her chief press secretary, Mike Munro, says she will hold a mock runthrough in an Auckland television studio this afternoon.

Someone - probably her media guru Brian Edwards - will fire questions at her, trying to anticipate any "leftfield" questions which she might face on the night.

English: Has not cleared nearly as much space in his diary as Clark. He closes National's campaign in Hamilton this afternoon and flies to Auckland at 3pm for the 9.30pm debate. There he and his team will lock themselves away in a SkyCity hotel room and run a similar mock debate.

No one from the English camp likes to talk details - both sides get rather secretive about debate preparations - but it seems a fair bet that campaign strategy director Tim Grafton will play John Campbell, while press secretary Sue Foley moonlights as Helen Clark, throwing in awkward interjections.

2. The look: what should I wear?

Don't underestimate the importance of appearances, says Griffin. "I know it sounds trivial and superficial, but the nature of the human condition is you're very easily distracted from political arguments anyway and very few people can remember a political argument five minutes after the debate is over.

"What they do remember is the demeanour, which, sadly for Western democracies, is all important when it comes to wining votes. If you've got 5 per cent of the votes, that's soft, and a presentation on television can make the difference - and Peter Dunne would suggest that's possible. It's absolutely critical to ensure that demeanour is as empathetic with the voters as possible."

Clark: Has taken a few knocks for her clothes sense in the previous debates, including a bright red number in the first TV3 debate which some commentators compared to a walking Labour billboard or an out-take from the Mikado. She settled down after that and looked authoritative in a smart-casual grey jacket and black top on Monday's Holmes debate.

Both Griffin and Harvey think Clark has looked good in the debates. Griffin even defends her red outfit and urges her not to tone down.

"I thought it enhanced visually the effect she was having on the screen. It caught the eye, it sent a message. It was plain enough - unlike the suits and rubbish that [National president] Michelle Boag wears - not to distract from what she was saying.

"Michelle Boag's a disaster on television in terms of the gear she puts on. No one ever remembers anything she says. What they do remember is what a fright she looked."

Harvey says the right look is about much more than just clothes. He rates Clark as masterful on TV (second only to the "prince", Winston Peters) and physically relaxed and comfortable on screen - unlike her opponent.

"It's the fall of her shoulders, the sitting of her hands. Helen's body looks like she's been trained by a tai chi master."

English: Both men say there's not much wrong with the conservative dark blue suits, although Griffin wishes the National leader would get a cutaway collar, which doesn't cover his tie.

The problem, says Harvey, is his face: "Bill English does extraordinary rubber mask things with his face - he contorts his face. He's actually quite a handsome man, and given some training he might be a very passable Tom Cruise."

Is it because he's nervous? "No, he doesn't know he's doing it. That's why television training, even though people put it down, is so important to get those things out. By the next election he should have those facial contortions under control."

Jim Bolger had a similar problem, says Harvey. He used to move his jaw backward and forward until his first press secretary, Michael Wall (Griffin's predecessor), trained him out of it.

Harvey adds that English also can't keep still on camera. He kept "wriggling and jiggling" during his closing address on Monday, which distracted viewers.

3. Tone: formal or folksy, positive or negative?

The worst advice any politician can get, says Griffin, is to try to be something he or she is not. In other words, don't try to be folksy if you are formal, and vice versa.

As a former adman, Harvey has more faith in the image makeover, which he thinks has worked for Clark (he compares her transformation with past Labour leaders Norman Kirk and David Lange). But no, he doesn't see the country looking back in 10 years in the same way at the transformation of Bill English.

Clark: Griffin argues that formality is Clark's strength. "Helen Clark is not an after-dinner speaker. She's not folksy. Her demeanour is serious, she's academic, she's a bluestocking. I think it would be insane for her to change that style - she's proved for the past three years that that's what works."

Clark has been criticised, especially after the first TV3 debate, for acting as if the whole campaign was beneath her. Griffin thinks this is not so much her personality but a natural disadvantage all Prime Ministers face when they hit the campaign trail.

"They go from being the leader - and Jim Bolger was even worse at this in my opinion - to essentially a petitioner ... trying to sell a case and justify a position for their political survival. That's a very difficult psychological jump."

Clark has also started to use humour in recent debates, apparently to counter voter perceptions that she takes herself too seriously and lashes out at anyone who dares to criticise her. When Paul Holmes raised Winston Peters' nasty "black widow spider" reference to her, she chose to laugh it off rather than take offence.

Harvey prefers to see the humour as part of Clark's newfound confidence. She would never have risked it in the last election, he says, but now she's loosened up and will try things.

English: Took a punt in Holmes by getting angry and emotional on camera. The idea seemed to be to communicate passion to viewers - unlike the cool, uncaring Clark - but Griffin and Harvey both say it backfired.

"I thought he overdid it somewhat the other night," says Griffin. "He seems to confuse being forceful with being aggressive, thus the yelling and the high-energy approach to a debate, which also involves yelling when someone else is talking."

English does have a short fuse, says Griffin, but his basic personality is "a smart guy from Southland with a drawl", who also happens to be a good debater. He needs to let that come through more.

Harvey saw English's anger as frustration at his lack of impact on the campaign. It intrigues him that English has not gained the sympathy vote or the underdog vote, possibly because voters still do not take him seriously as a politician.

4. Tactics: do I talk to the interviewer, the studio audience or the viewers at home?

Our experts were split on this one. Harvey says the real audience is out there in the living rooms of New Zealand. Clark and English should forget John Campbell and the studio audience and talk direct to the multimedia generation who understand the debate is just an artificial device to allow this direct communication.

But Griffin says the days of Rob Muldoon staring down the barrel of the camera and talking directly to viewers are long gone - and the trick didn't work for Muldoon either.

Television works on a sense of intimacy, he says. People can relate to a sense of intimacy built up by the conversation between a politician and interviewer. That intimacy disappears if politicians ignore the person they are supposed to be talking to and strike up an artificial one-way dialogue with the viewer.

Both leaders need to think in advance how they will treat the interviewer. For instance, on Monday they switched between "Paul" and "Mr Holmes", an irritant for the audience. Clark and English both need to decide in advance whether it's "John" or "Mr Campbell" and stick to it.

Clark: This could get personal. Clark threatened to boycott the debate after Campbell ambushed her with the GM corn interview and later called the TV3 host a "little creep" on radio. Viewers may be expecting fireworks, but Griffin says Clark needs to be thoroughly professional and act as if the whole incident never happened.

English: Could benefit from a Clark-Campbell meltdown but would be unwise to try to start it himself.

5. Message: how do I do the vision thing?

Both leaders will have the chance to make opening and closing statements - the one time in the debate they are secure from interruption from their opponent or the interviewer. So what do they need to get across?

On television, specific content tends to disappear from viewers' minds, says Griffin. You need some in your opening to give people some messages to think about during the debate, but it doesn't register in the closing. You can also give people a shake-up in your opening address, as English tried to do on Monday, but not at the end.

The main aim, he says, is to leave a lasting impression of sincerity with your target audience (you can't hope to please everybody).

Especially in this volatile election, the idea is to swing some of the 15 per cent or more of wavering voters your way.

Clark: Needs to secure the Labour left vote which is flirting with the Greens and possibly still with the Alliance. Will emphasise stability to try to take out the Greens and NZ First.

English: Will probably emphasise, as he did on Monday, the importance of voting for what you believe in - a plea to traditional National voters to forget tactical voting for Act, NZ First, United or even Labour.

6. Issues: what do I want to talk about (and avoid talking about)?

As a general rule, one leader's hobby horse is the other's nightmare. Expect more of the same tonight.

Clark: Wants to talk about leadership, stability, strong government. All night, if possible. Wants to avoid talking about Paintergate, coalitions in any detail, Waitakere polls suggesting she just might have to deal with Laila Harre again and the possible Qantas buyout of Air New Zealand. But English's admission on Monday that National also wants to sell made the airline makes it hard for him to score any points here.

English: Wants to talk about people's fears over rising crime and falling education standards. Slightly handicapped by the teachers' strike going to arbitration, which stops all industrial action for now, and a perception that he has worked this issue to death.

Griffin also thinks he should stop beating up on Trevor Mallard, whom he argues many voters admire for standing up to the teachers.

English does not want to talk about National's dismal poll ratings, his astonishing comments last Friday about rebuilding National over 10 years (which sounded like an admission of defeat) or anything to do with Michelle Boag.

Full news coverage:
nzherald.co.nz/election

Election links:
The parties, policies, voting information, and more

Ask a politician:
Send us a question, on any topic, addressed to any party leader. We'll choose the best questions to put to the leaders, and publish the answers in our election coverage.