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The number of obese children will grow dramatically in the coming years and so will their death rates from heart disease, according to a pair of studies from the United States and Denmark published yesterday.
"If we don't take steps to reverse course, the children of each successive generation seem destined to be fatter and sicker than their parents," said David Ludwig of Children's Hospital Boston in a commentary in the New England Journal of Medicine, where the studies appear.
The Danish study, which tracked more than one quarter of a million school children in Copenhagen from 1930 to 1976, found that overweight children grew up to have more heart problems, particularly the boys.
The heavier they were as youngsters, particularly entering their teens, the greater the risk. For example, a 13-year-old boy who was 11.2kg above the average weight was found to be 33 per cent more likely than a child of normal weight to have a heart attack or some other problem caused by coronary heart disease (CHD) by age 60.
The finding "suggests that more children than ever before are facing increased risks of CHD in adulthood," said the team led by Jennifer Baker of the Centre for Health and Society in Copenhagen.
About 17 per cent of boys and 16 per cent of girls in the United States - more than nine million in total - are overweight.
The second study reported that out of this group, 25 per cent of the boys are obese, and that number is expected to increase to 30 to 37 per cent by 2020, when they turn 35.
For females in that group, 32 per cent of whom are obese, the ratio will rise to 34 to 44 per cent, according to that research team, led by Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo of the University of California, San Francisco.
That will lead to more heart disease, diabetes and high blood pressure at a younger age, and even aggressive treatment will not be able to stem the trend, they reported.
By 2035, the prevalence of heart disease will have increased by 5 to 16 per cent, they estimated.
Dr Ludwig said he and his colleagues "have predicted that paediatric obesity may shorten life expectancy in the US by two to five years by mid-century - an effect equal to that of all cancers combined".
- Reuters
