Former National Party leader Judith Collins and new acting leader Shane Reti after their caucus vote earlier this month. Photo / NZME
Former National Party leader Judith Collins and new acting leader Shane Reti after their caucus vote earlier this month. Photo / NZME
I guess Judith Collins knew her days were numbered and concluded taking Simon Bridges out in the process might take some of the sting out of it. To be fair, it was very on brand.
The manoeuvre failed for much the same reason her leadership did. Voters admire boldness, butthey like good judgement more – and Judith has terrible judgement.
Collins fashioned a reputation for toughness and straight-talk, a simple and compelling enough brand proposition for her to stand out as one of many cabinet ministers or opposition frontbenchers.
But the exposure and scrutiny that comes with leadership is on an entirely different plane.
LBJ's biographer Robert Caro says that power doesn't necessarily corrupt, but it reveals. In Collins' case, quite simply, it revealed the job is beyond her. As Justin Marshall might put it: wrong skillset.
Simon Bridges is a street fighter who assiduously works the party. Like Collins, he can throw a punch but he's more likely to land one occasionally. He's hardly a likeable figure and the other problem that dogged his previous outing in the job – that he just doesn't match up well against Jacinda Ardern – hasn't gone anywhere.
What's more, his all-consuming ambition, and apparent willingness to say or do whatever it takes to feed it, raises character questions he may struggle to shake.
Despite having such a high profile corporate career, Chris Luxon is something of an International (Airline) Man of Mystery. Depending on who you speak to, he's either the reincarnation of John Key or a swivel-eyed Christian zealot who treats The Handmaid's Tale as an instruction video.
I doubt either version is true, but if Luxon gets the job, the first few days and weeks will be critical as he introduces himself to the electorate. My sense is, if his colleagues thought he was ready, they would have promoted him months ago. Luxon is a gamble, but hardly a reckless one given the alternatives.
Luxon may enlist the liberal Nicola Willis as deputy to convey factional as well as gender balance. These deals make for great photo-ops but almost always end badly (see Moore and Clark, Rudd and Gillard).
Housing spokesperson Nicola Willis. Photo / NZME
Mark Mitchell is reaching beyond his grasp by nominating this time. He was passed over previously for Collins – and it's not as if MPs felt enthusiasm or affection for her. He could end up as a compromise pick, but more likely an also-ran.
Dr Shane Reti. Of all the candidates he has the most spectacular CV. Rural Doctor, Harvard trained and safe hands.
Reti-Willis: Great combination, Provincial / Urban, Social Conservative / Liberal, Male / Female and Maori / Pakeha.
Whoever succeeds Collins, National faces the same existential question that loomed over her tenure.
Will National succumb to the temptation to follow centre-right counterparts in the UK, US and Australia fully down the path to a politics of grievance, division and distrust?
