Folks who read my column last week may notice that I’ve pulled back, as I did call for Hipkins to go immediately. I think a change of leadership is inevitable, but there is critical work and more important things to focus on right now.
While the leadership question can wait, Labour needs to start to think about what went wrong now.
In 2008, Labour’s caucus blanked out the trauma of losing power and decided they were just temporarily embarrassed ministers; that the public would soon see the error of its ways and “come home” to Labour. National thought the same way during the 2017-2020 term, believing they had been “robbed” and didn’t need to re-examine themselves and change to win voters back.
The people who will be hurt by National’s brutal cuts cannot afford Labour to indulge in that self-delusion this time.
What went wrong?
Take a look at the individual seats and it’s not like National’s vote has shot up by a huge amount. But Labour’s vote has collapsed. Around 200,000 fewer votes were cast compared to the turnout rate in 2020. And those missing 200,000 voters were heavily concentrated in Labour seats.
Although a decent amount of voters did make the switch from left to right, this was not a “blue wave”. The killer for Labour was that about one in seven of their former voters stayed home. If those 200,000 voters had turned out, this election would have been a photo finish.
Those New Zealanders had voted for Jacinda Ardern’s vision – the promise we can take on big problems and achieve big things. And she delivered: 77,000 kids out of poverty, 200,000 more homes built nationwide, over 300,000 more people in work, 20,000 lives saved during Covid.
Where was the vision this election? (and where was the story of what had been achieved)?
Election slogans offer an insight into the party’s mindset.
“Let’s do this” was a call for people to be part of a national project to make things better, and voters wanted in.
“In it for you” didn’t invite voters in. It painted Labour as an elite, disconnected from voters: “We’re in politics to look after you.” It promised managerialism – politics “for”, not “with”.
Covid absorbed Labour’s focus for two years. By the time it emerged out the other side, Labour had lost its vision. There were few transformative policies, with the exception of Fair Pay Agreements. Just endless reform programmes that annoyed voters and incrementalist policies voters didn’t notice.
Hipkins, to his credit, recognised this. His policy bonfire was popular because it told voters he was listening.
But there was no follow-up. No new vision. When Hipkins killed the wealth tax idea and offered a few bucks off your potatoes, instead, it told left voters that Labour no longer had the energy to take on big problems with imagination, courage and bold policies.
It is true voters don’t back a party based on detailed analysis of policies, but they do look at what those policies represent. Labour’s 10-point cost of living plan told voters it planned to keep on tinkering, nibbling at the edges of problems, and creating new programmes, with more complexity, costs, and inevitable bureaucracy.
The problem with a Labour party running on visionless, dull managerialism is that is what National runs on too, and they have the businessmen in blue suits.
The task of Labour in the coming three years will be to develop a new bold vision that empowers people and gets out of their lives as much as possible. Not “the Government will look after you” but “together, we can fix the big problems we face”, backed and exemplified by a simple policy programme: fair tax, free and universal public services, world-class infrastructure, full employment and fair wages, equality for all, and environmental sustainability.
Maybe, then, those 200,000 Kiwis will find they have a reason to vote.
Shane Te Pou (Ngāi Tūhoe) is a commentator, blogger and former Labour party activist.
