The Labour resurgence and Christopher Luxon’s falling popularity are sending shivers through the hearts of National strategists.
As Heather du Plessis-Allan put it, National’s message to voters has been, “Labour sucks, we’re not Labour, vote for us.” Suddenly, Hipkins has taken away the first part of that equation, and the rest doesn’t add up without it.
Luxon and National have failed to establish a positive vision the way John Key and Jacinda Ardern did. And an offering of just “we’re not Labour” isn’t enough.
Luxon was measuring the curtains for the Beehive last year. Now, he looks like a rabbit in headlights. He doesn’t know what else to do, and his fate is bearing down on him quickly.
Every National MP who can count, which is most of them, is looking at the polls and realising Luxon is dragging them down.
Defenders say the public just needs to get to know Luxon more but it’s clear that, as voters see more and more of him, they want him as Prime Minister less and less. Maybe, someone who owns seven houses and complains that the minimum wage boost will make his takeaway coffee cost a few cents more simply isn’t in touch with voters’ priorities.
Labour has scraped off its barnacles. National will surely be weighing scraping off its own.
One thing’s clear: Luxon’s not going to step down as leader voluntarily. He wants one thing out of politics - to be Prime Minister. And he’s chasing that goal with unwavering self-belief.
No, if Luxon goes, it’ll be because he was pushed. And Nicola Willis would be the one leading the shoving.
A rapid riser and unashamedly ambitious, Willis may well think she can save National from the defeat Luxon is sleepwalking towards. She certainly took the opportunity of Luxon’s Covid isolation to be front and centre in media and Parliament this week.
Problem is, the last time Willis convinced the caucus to roll an established leader in an election year gamble, it resulted in Todd Muller’s ill-fated 53 days at the top, followed by the disaster of Judith Collins. National collapsed from leading the polls at the start of 2020 to laughing-stock territory by election day. They won’t want to repeat the exercise.
Willis’ colleagues, some of whom still harbour resentment over the way she led the Muller coup and dislike her cut-throat style, will be wary of taking a punt like that again. Especially if she’s the candidate.
Maybe they’ll look for a different option. Pickings are slim, but I reckon there are two choices:
Shane Reti. He led with quiet dignity during the short interregnum after Collins was dethroned. He wouldn’t bring the same energetic negativity that has characterised Luxon’s leadership, but he might bring reasons to vote for National, rather than just against Labour. And it’s worth noting the last time National polled consistently over 40 per cent was with a Māori leader.
Erica Stanford. Another quick riser, Stanford hasn’t put as many noses out of joint in National’s caucus as Willis and seems more genuine, less of a political machine. In her immigration portfolio, Stanford has been able to stand up for people who have been screwed over by the remorseless machinery of government. That could be a basis for more hopeful, positive leadership.
If National does bite the bullet, whoever replaces Luxon is going to have to find a positive message and a compelling set of policies. They’ll have their work cut out for them. When Jacinda Ardern became Labour leader seven weeks from the 2017 election, she inherited a full policy programme and overlaid it with her infectious optimism. But a new National leader would have to build the party’s platform from the ground up, and would have mere months to do it. Let me finish by telling you this: tax cuts for folks at the big end of town isn’t the election winner National thinks it is.
Shane Te Pou (Ngāi Tūhoe) is a commentator, blogger and former Labour party activist.
