Settled weather for long weekend

I don't believe it. A few days out from Easter and the forecast for the long weekend actually looks settled for most places. The long range computer models we use at the Weather Watch Centre have been relatively consistent for the past few days showing a large high moving in from the Tasman Sea on Friday following a number of cold fronts passing over New Zealand during Wednesday and Thursday.
This high will shunt much of the cloud and showers out in to the Pacific Ocean but there is a catch. The cold snap moving up New Zealand today will be "locked in" by this high...that means some cold nights are on the way along with cooler daytime temperatures too...at least for the start of the weekend.

Cloud periods will also move in through western areas of both islands, from Taranaki to Auckland to Northland while a low off the Canterbury coast may see some clouds along the east coast of both islands on Friday.

As Saturday and Sunday roll in the high should spread east across the country meaning most of our traditional holiday spots will have a sunny, dry, long weekend. Highs in the late teens for many but overnight lows dropping to the single digits almost everywhere. Frosts are even likely inland south of Waikato.

We have created our own 'official' Easter weekend forecast for all the regions this long weekend, covering the weather for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The forecasts are updated every morning and evening so check out the weather for your holiday destination here.

And remember you can always read our new independent Auckland forecasts, updated 24/7, here.

It's funny - the forecast for northern New Zealand was for showers or rain last night...most places were relatively dry. This brings me to my next topic - just how dry things are becoming. I'm amazed how wet February was as we tapped into that incredibly humid, saturated, air north of the country...then just a few days into March someone turned the tap off and it's been dry - bone dry - for many of us.

Eastern parts of the North Island are again being hit hardest with very little rain falling over the past month or so. The forecast over the next 7 days doesn't look positive with dry conditions prevailing as winds come in from the west.

North of New Zealand, where some of our big rain makers are formed, and the skies aren't looking so dramatic as they were a month ago. The Coral Sea appears to have "dried out" with most rain bands now forming east of Fiji. We saw Tropical Cyclone Lin flare up in the weekend east of Fiji and directly move over Tonga. Lucky for Tonga the cyclone didn't make it above Cat2 and damage was relatively light. There is some activity north of New Zealand but not really in the places we'd like to see it to bring rain in for the North Island.

We have a cold snap moving up the country Wednesday and Thursday so temperatures are going to drop - a sign that winter storms are on the way. These fronts are quite weak and wont drop much rain for places in the centre, east and north of both islands. And with our large high holding firm into early next week there's no sign of anything changing too dramatically.

Philip Duncan

Photo / Bay of Plenty Times