KEY POINTS:
Talk to car salesmen, and you'd think the end of the world is nigh. But take a broader view, and it's not as bad as you'd think.
Yes, the passenger car market is down 1.7 per cent from last year, according to Motor Industry Association figures. The business and rental market fell further - no doubt hit by finance company collapses or withdrawals. But the private and government sector is up.
The SUV market dropped 16.8 per cent year on year. Overall, the market is down by nearly five per cent.
But to view these figures as failure is to assume that sales will always go up. Assume instead that they may fluctuate, and things look less catastrophic.
The total passenger car market last year was 73,224, considerably down on the previous year's 77,314. But that figure is not far below 2004's 74,387.
Global markets are in trouble; GM, Chrysler and Ford are struggling and there is good reason for concern. But it's too early to organise the wake.
Even Holden NZ GM Simon Carr says it's too soon to grieve. He should be worried given Holden sales dropped 20 per cent last year and its traditional headliner - the Commodore - fell over 30 per cent, though it's still NZ's second-biggest seller after Toyota's Corolla. But he believes NZ's agrarian economy is well placed to weather the global storm.
"People still have to eat, dress and get from place to place, and there will continue to be demand for New Zealand produce," he says.
More to the point, "Finance companies we have been talking to say brands like Holden and Ford could stand to do fairly well out of this, as people who've migrated up the cost scale will still have to change vehicles as their leases expire, but they'll cut their cloth accordingly and come back to the brands they've left."
Nissan's marketing MD Peter Merrie agrees. His X-Trail - a finalist in the NZ Car of the Year - bucked the SUV trend to see a modest climb in sales. He says companies with new products will be in a strong position.
He's welcoming four new models to the line-up in early 2009, the Maxima and Murano, plus the performance GT-R and the 370Z.
