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Used car dealers are braced for a dramatic slump in sales after New Year's Day as old imports are banned by a rule aimed against deadly air pollution.
Even if the Government heeds advice from officials to soften the immediate impact of the rule on petrol cars, the Independent Motor Vehicle Dealers Association expects sales next year to tumble to half their existing annual level of about 125,000 used imports.
As for diesel vehicles - over which the officials are holding a harder line because of the extra harm to health from particulate emissions - association chief David Vinsen says Ministry of Transport research shows the trade in used models will be "in effect eliminated" by a scarcity of supply and unaffordable prices.
He warns of financial pain for small businesses relying on second-hand vans and specialist vehicles.
Government officials are not denying new emission standards yet to be approved by ministers will have a chilling impact on sales, but deny claims by Mr Vinsen's organisation and the Motor Trade Association that they risk causing more pollution by forcing people to keep older vehicles running for longer.
The Motor Industry Association, representing car manufacturers, is meanwhile urging the Government not to yield to pressure from dealers to continue "to allow the import of dirty old diesel vehicles".
"For 10 years the used importers have flooded our roads with older and older vehicles and now it is time for them to face reality," said industry association chief Perry Kerr, after a call by Mr Vinsen's organisation for its members to fund a $300,000 public relations offensive against the Government's proposals.
The importers believe they have scored a minor victory by persuading officials to consider a phase-in period for standards for petrol vehicles.
They warned that, without such a concession, used car sales would slump immediately by 80 per cent - rather than the 50 per cent reduction generally expected in the first year.
The officials are expected to recommend that used imported petrol cars comply in the first year with emissions standards set by Japan in 1998, before the Government moves in 2009 to standards set for vehicles made in Japan between 2000 and 2003.
But they are understood to be holding firm to a requirement for diesel vehicles to comply from January 1 to standards introduced in Japan between 2002 and 2004.
Ministry of Transport environment and safety general manager David Crawford would not disclose contents of a paper due for Cabinet consideration in about a fortnight, but acknowledged his team had not initially appreciated the way the higher standards had been implemented in Japan.
These had been staggered over several years, and the Ministry now accepted that an immediate move to that level in New Zealand "creates a bigger impact than what we had thought".
He said Cabinet had called for emission standards to improve over time, meaning all vehicles would have to meet progressively tougher standards.
His job was to provide advice on achieving that "without compromising the safety of the fleet and do it in a way that doesn't create unnecessary economic shocks".
Although acknowledging consumer resistance to higher-priced vehicles may slow progress, Mr Crawford said there was no way improving used import standards would produce higher air pollution.
Emissions did not rise dramatically as vehicles became older, as long as they were properly tuned, and high fuel prices provided a strong economic incentive for that.
"The problem is we are importing somebody else's rubbish that is soon going to become a disposal problem for us - people are buying more and more cars and in Auckland air quality is a problem," he said.
Rising costs
$10,000-$12,000: Average price now of a 1998-99 imported used car
$14,000-$20,000: Predicted price of an "entry-level" used import if pre-2000 models are banned from 2009
