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The large car market in New Zealand has plummeted 37 per cent in four years - from a 25 per cent share overall in 2004 to a 15.7 per cent slice last year, Motor Industry Association figures show.
The slide is expected to continue, with automotive analysts predicting large cars will account for around 13 per cent of sales overall in 2008, despite a buoyant new-vehicle sales forecast. Large car sales last year were down 9.5 per cent on 2006.
MIA chief executive Perry Kerr said: "The rise in fuel prices, changes in demographics - that is, the ageing population - an abundance of alterative compatible vehicles which usually have multiple use functions ... these factors all contribute.
"We see this [large car] segment as continuing to be under pressure, especially as we are looking at potential government initiatives to reduce the size of vehicles sold in New Zealand."
Soft-roaders, big and small, mainstream and luxury, are replacing the large family sedan, MIA data shows. Compact models like the Suzuki Vitara, Honda CR-V, Nissan X-Trail, Toyota RAV4, Hyundai Tucson and Kia Sportage have grown the segment by more than 46 per cent since 2004.
Medium size vehicles like the Ford Territory, Hyundai Santa Fe and Holden Captiva contributed to 45 per cent growth in the same period.
Luxury all-wheel-drive SUVs like the BMW X3 and X5, Audi Q7, Land Rover Freelander, Discovery 3, Range Rover, Volkswagen Touareg, Mercedes-Benz M-Class, Volvo XC90 and Lexus RX300 have pushed up that segment by almost 30 per cent.
On the other hand, sales of the mud-plugging four-wheel drives like Nissan Patrol, Toyota Land Cruiser and Land Rover Defender have fallen away by 20.7 per cent since 2004.
The soft-road market is expected to continue to eat into the large car market. Next month, VW will launch its new Tiguan, the little brother to the Touareg and priced between $50,000-$60,000. Audi has the Q5 - again a smaller version of the company's Q7 - in its sights next year.
The medium car segment - Honda Accord, Ford Mondeo, Hyundai Sonata, for example - has also been hit. MIA figures show sales last year of 11,414, down 20 per cent on the 13,848 sold in 2004. The new Accord and Mondeo will boost medium sales this year.
But small car sales have risen 9.2 per cent since 2004, from 17,834 in 2004 to 20,246 sales last year. They are forecast to account for more than 10 per cent this year. The Toyota Corolla was the best-selling car last month.
Toyota led the January market with 1557 sales for a 20.6 per cent share followed by Holden with 878 (11.64) and Ford with 744 (9.86). Small car specialist Suzuki leapt into fourth place with 595 sales (7.89). The recent arrival of a sedan variant boosts Suzuki's popular SX4 line-up.
The drop in large car sales is mirrored in Australia, where two of NZ's most popular sedans, the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon, are built. Sales across the ditch of Australian-made cars fell by 11.5 per cent last year against an increase of 10.4 per cent for imported cars.
Large cars took the biggest hit. Sales of the family sedan fell by almost 21 per cent last month.
The Commodore was dethroned by the Toyota Corolla, the best-selling car in Australia in January. It was the seventh time the Corolla has outsold the Commodore on a monthly basis there in recent years.
The Falcon, admittedly on runout with a new model due in the next few months, had to settle for 15th place, believed to be its worst monthly sales performance on record in Australia. So far this year, Toyota is the most popular brand in Australia and NZ.
Overall, January sales in both countries were up - in Australia by nearly 7 per cent overall and NZ by 11 per cent for new cars and 9 per cent for commercials. But senior automotive figures warn of challengers.
Andrew McKellar, the chief executive of Australia's Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, said Australian carmakers would face the most pressure.
"While overall sales are buoyant, the results reinforce the significant competitive challenges facing local manufacturers," he said.
Those challenges contributed to Mitsubishi Motors Australia Ltd ending production for NZ and Australia of its large 380 sedan and the closure of the Adelaide plant that builds the car on March 31.
Mitsubishi executives blamed the sales shift away from large cars and the strength of the Australian dollar, which made imported cars more affordable and exports from the remaining Holden, Ford and Toyota plants less profitable.
"It is an inescapable fact that there is now a deepening trend away from large cars," said MMAL president and CEO Rob McEniry.
