Jacinda Ardern announced that New Zealand is sending Defence Force intelligence staff and gear to assist in Ukraine's war effort.
Video / Supplied / NZDF
New Zealand troops training Ukrainians to use howitzer artillery pieces could help the invaded country achieve a major breakthrough, a defence expert says.
Yesterday the Prime Minister announced the deployment of 30 Defence Force personnel to Britain, where they will teach Ukrainians to use the L119 light gun.
The 105 mm calibre artillery piece can be used in offensive or defensive operations and target armoured vehicles or buildings at ranges exceeding 10km.
"Training Ukrainians to use a more advanced and long-range artillery could actually lead to a strategic breakthrough in the current war," Prof Rouben Azizian said.
He said New Zealand's contribution would be a useful tool in a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
"We are moving from a defensive to a more counter-offensive stage where the Ukrainians can be successful in taking back some of the occupied territories."
Royal New Zealand Artillery during Exercise Lightning Kiwi at Tekapo with the howitzer. Photo / NZDF
Azizian, from the Massey University Centre for Defence & Security Studies, said there was still concern in Western countries about whether Ukrainians would be properly trained to do the job.
Azizian said Ukrainians painfully learned the value of long-range guns after finding troops isolated in Mariupol where Russian attackers were beyond the reach of Ukrainian artillery.
He said the L119 training would be widely welcomed in Ukraine and among its allies.
"It gets 100 per cent consensus - everyone wants Ukraine to defend itself."
But in future, Western opinion might splinter when decisions need to be made on how far Ukraine goes if it gains the advantage, Azizian said.
"What is the role of artillery in the end game? We are seeing some tension between various allies in the West and Ukraine. Do you use artillery to take back everything that Russia occupies?"
He added: "New Zealand's position is we fully support Ukrainian territorial integrity. So by saying that, we should be supporting Ukraine trying to recapture everything."
After invading on February 24, Russia currently occupies a strip of southern and eastern Ukraine. And since 2014, it has occupied Crimea.
Azizian said the chances of Russian president Vladimir Putin using weapons of mass destruction remained a concern.
He said there was no chance of Ukraine invading Russia, because the smaller country had neither the appetite nor resources to do so.
"They want to start normal life as soon as possible."
Azizian said Ukraine was more likely to retake regions Russia had seized or claimed since February, including the Donbas.
The industrialised Donbas region is home now to the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic - states the UN does not recognise.
Azizian said Putin might be able to stomach a Ukrainian recapture of these regions.
But the future of Crimea, a 27,000sq km peninsula of strategic and historical importance to Russia, could be a flashpoint.
"According to Mr Putin, Crimea is part of Russia's territory although it's not recognised. If Ukraine wants Crimea back, according to Putin: You are attacking my territory."
Azizian said Putin could use any invasion of Crimea as pretext for invoking the country's nuclear doctrine.
But that was still unlikely, Azizian said, since even in Russia some checks and balances existed around deploying nuclear weapons and a potentially deranged Putin would be unable to act unilaterally.
The likelihood of US retaliation would make at least some senior leaders in Russia reconsider any nuclear attack.
"There is a protocol ... At least one of them will think about their own family's survival."
A small-scale chemical weapon attack was more likely, Azizian said, but that too might not go unpunished.
Azizian said Putin had used his possession of WMDs to "bluff" some Western leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron.
