Running hot on the job front

By ANGELA McCARTHY

Predicting he future of your job is an inexact science - labour markets are vulnerable to world economic trends.

But if you check out past trends and temper them with current conditions - the internal (America's Cup, droughts and floods) and external (possible war with Iraq and exchange rates) - you can get a good grasp of where more jobs are being created.

The Department of Labour's six-monthly WorkINSIGHT publication, which has captured trends between the 1996 and 2001 censuses, helps paint a picture of where we're going - and which areas you should keep an eye on if you're looking to train for a job or switch to something different.

So what can you take from this information? Auckland University of Technology careers centre manager Dale Furbish says that workers should look at interests - things they love to do - before setting work goals. Then, look at the labour market.

If your interests and goals fall into a hot job area, that's great, he says. But if not, don't worry. "The labour market changes very quickly so you're better to follow your passions, rather than supposed security."

Top prospects

* Information and communication technology (ICT) workers, such as systems analysts, computer programmers and computer applications engineers: up 79 per cent between 1996 and 2001.

No surprises here. Everywhere, from banks to home-based businesses, people are using computer-based technology. Everything is going on-line which requires people to input, maintain, create, protect and support.

* Teachers and advisers such as primary and secondary teachers, education advisers, and kohanga reo teachers: 21 per cent growth.

Teachers are wanted around the globe. In New Zealand we're particularly short in secondary schools, the problem has been a large blip of children born in from the mid-80s coming through the system.

Primary schools have levelled out now, with the exception of Auckland where strong migration causes shortages at all levels.

At early childhood education (ECE) level, staffing problems have arisen because of a recent regulation that all early childhood centres have at least one qualified ECE teacher on duty.

If you're of Maori or Pacific descent, and male, you're really sizzling - such role models are desperately needed.

* Health workers, such as registered nurses, caregivers, general practitioners and veterinarians: up 20 per cent.

Health workers are also in demand internationally, a demand driven by a longer-living but aging population, and an increase in sophistication of health care, says Lester Oakes, Career Services chief executive.

"Demand is across the board, from professionals like medical radiation technologists to home aide workers looking after people in their homes."

* Media and entertainment workers, including photographers, recording technologists and DJs: up 20 per cent.

The growth in web-based entertainment and entertainment venues also crosses over into hospitality, says AUT's Furbish. But the field isn't a huge employer - the increase comes off a low base. The industry's 20 per cent increase in the four years from 1996 took the total employed in 2001 to 27,000.

* Protective workers, such as social workers, police officers and safety inspectors: up 15 per cent.

Increased funding of social services is leading to worker shortages, says Furbish. Oakes says that a surge in the numbers of people providing private security has created jobs such as monitoring security systems and security guard and bouncer work.

* Hospitality and customer service workers, such as waiters, hotel receptionists and hairdressers: 1 per cent growth.

Although 1 per cent looks a feeble increase compared to other industries, it equates to many jobs in this large sector. In 2001, the sector employed an extra thousand people making the total size of the industry 119,000 people. There are still many opportunities in hospitality, especially for people with customer service skills, says Furbish.

Slow spawners

* Agricultural, forestry and fishery workers, including dairy farmers, fishing skippers, landscape gardeners and loggers: down 11 per cent.

Agriculture and fishery employment fell over 16,000 between 1996 and 2001 after growing 26,000 in the previous five years. This decline continues. Farm incomes - particularly dairy - will be affected this year by lower world commodity prices and a higher exchange rate. The decline in farming shows the impact of technology on the rural sector, says Oakes: "These days an average dairy herd is 500 cows; a generation ago it was 100."

* Labourers, including cleaners, factory workers and pest control workers: down 10 per cent.

This drop is a trend that has been evident for over 20 years, says Oakes. "It isn't just about computer technology. Factories now have sophisticated machinery and jobs have gone. Factory workers now need a different skill set."

* Engineers, including civil engineers, mechanical engineers, architects and draughting technicians: down 6 per cent.

Both Oakes and Furbish expressed surprise at this decline. So did Competenz, the engineering industry training organisation (ITO).

Amanda Harrison, Competenz group manager marketing, says there was good growth in numbers in 1998 and 1999, then slow growth 2000 to 2002. But numbers will increase as Modern Apprenticeships put more young engineers into the workforce.