Rugby fans must pack thermals, sunblock

Rugby fans will need to be prepared for extreme vagaries in the weather. Photo / Brett Phibbs

If this spring's weather is anything to go by, Rugby World Cup fans will best be advised to pack sunblock, thermals and wet-weather gear for matches at next year's tournament.

The Herald asked Weather Watch analyst Philip Duncan to monitor weather patterns a year out from RWC 2011.

Although not a forecast, Mr Duncan's research over September and this month showed that rugby fans - and the 80,000 visitors expected in New Zealand - will need to be prepared for extreme vagaries in the weather.

"We could have an icy blast of snow and two days later it could be 25 degrees - we have seen that happen this year," said Mr Duncan.

"Spring is all over the place. It chops and changes wildly ... There are possibilities for every scenario."

Mr Duncan's figures revealed an average "comfort rating" of 7 out of 10 at rugby grounds for the duration of the tournament.

Invercargill scored the worst with 1 out of 10 on September 17 after last month's freak snowfall - said to be Southland's heaviest in 50 years - caused the roof at Stadium Southland to collapse.

But despite the Arctic-like chill, fans still flocked to Rugby Park to watch Southland beat Auckland in a Ranfurly Shield challenge that week.

On the same day, Auckland fared little better. It was blasted by squally showers and gusts of up to 105km/h.

The new Eden Park provides cover for 80 per cent of its fans - the rest would have had a comfort level of 2.

But two weeks later, Napier and Nelson, both of which are hosting matches, scored perfect 10s for comfort.

Both towns recorded light winds, temperatures in the mid teens, clear skies and pleasant viewing conditions.

Mr Duncan said the prevailing weather pattern in spring was normally a strong southwesterly flow.

He said more sunlight in the Southern Hemisphere helped to fuel more storms from the Southern Ocean - but spring isn't a bad time to have a major rugby tournament here.

"Both summer and winter have their definite downsides ... spring isn't too bad.

"The only other time of the year which would be good would be autumn, when the temperatures start to cool down a bit and we have long evenings."

Rugby World Cup 2011 spokesman Mike Jaspers was confident next year's tournament would be successful, despite the unpredictable nature of the weather at this time of year.

He said the September/October timeframe not only meant milder weather but was a favourable gap in the calendar for rugby nations in both hemispheres.

The tournament was also timed so it did not clash with other major global sporting events, with the US Open (tennis) the only exception.

Mr Jaspers said previous major tours here, including the 2005 Lions and the inaugural 1987 Rugby World Cup, were held in winter and both were well attended.

A third of the total allocation of tickets for next year's tournament have been sold already.

"We think that 500,000 tickets sold so far is a big vote of confidence and I think that shows that fans are prepared to come here.

"We are a small island nation at the bottom of the world and the weather here can be unpredictable but we are confident the tournament will be a success," Mr Jaspers said.

Suzanne Carter of Tourism NZ said visitors were usually highly satisfied with their experiences here, rating them 9 out of 10 on average.

She said activities and the environment were the two areas that affected a visitor's experience most but rugby fans would probably be worried more about their team's performance.

"With rugby played in rain, hail or shine at premier level around the world, we don't expect spring weather patterns to factor considerably in decisions to travel here or in their enjoyment of the event," she said.

September last year had about 172,000 international visitor arrivals, whereas last February had 267,000.