As the results come in, nzherald.co.nz will be talking to the experts about what each win means and how it could change the make-up of the next parliament.
KEY POINTS:
11.15pm: Coalition building unlikely to be a chore
With 99 per cent of the votes counted, only "a bit of nibbling at the edges" could take place with special votes counted, political science lecturer Alan Simpson said.
The University of Waikato lecturer said some of the large
South Auckland seats coming in may have changed things, but in the end they had little or no effect.
"Labour has been stuck on 33 per cent for a long time now. I don't see any change there. The Greens might pick up another one but I think that's a pretty long-shot," Dr Simpson said.
He said special votes tend to follow the trend of the rest of the voting.
Dr Simpson said National will form a coalition with Act and United Future with little trouble.
"It looks like they won't have to pull in the Maori Party and go through a lot of hui. Yes, they may well decide to invite the Maori Party to be part of the action but yes, they can proceed," Dr Simpson said.
10.02pm: Bradley effect evident in NZ First result
New Zealand First could be the victim of the Bradley theory, a scenario where people tell opinion pollsters what they think they want to hear, not how they will vote.
Political studies lecturer Bryce Edwards said it was un-fashionable to vote New Zealand First.
"It looks like a number of people have told pollsters untruths, that they're not going to vote New Zealand First but they are," he said.
Dr Edwards said New Zealand First are getting more votes than they did in the polls heading into the election but it is still unlikely that New Zealand First will make it over the five per cent threshold.
He said that could cause major problems for Labour who lose a potential coalition partner.
Dr Edwards said Labour and New Zealand First have signed a "non-aggression pact" but Labour still stood candidates against Ron Mark and Winston Peters.
"It looks like New Zealand First are going to get 4 per cent of the vote but that's four per cent that Labour can't use in a coalition," he said.
9.40pm: 'Right side' holding up
Over half the votes have been counted and it is looking increasingly likely that there could be a "right-wing" coalition, says a political science lecturer.
Bryce Edwards from the University of Otago said it is still early days but even if the National and Act block loses one or two per cent, it will still have the numbers.
"The right side of politics is holding up strong," Dr Edwards said.
He said there is a chance that the Maori Party could end up as the king-makers.
9.29pm: Doubts NZ First can make 5 per cent threshold
New Zealand First is on its way out, an expert says.
The party is polling below 4.5 per cent and Winston Peters and Ron Mark are both trailing by a long way in their respective seats.
University of Auckland political science lecturer Jennifer Lees-Marshment said she is not surprised by the initial result for the minor party.
"I expect they'll go down further, it's so difficult to tell at this stage but I'd be surprised if they got over the five per cent," Dr Lees-Marshment said.
She said the early results were coming from the smaller towns and favoured the right-wing parties.
"I think Winston Peters is going to be on his way out after this election," Dr Lees-Marshment said.
She said the troubles that have plagued Mr Peters this year have put people off New Zealand First.
8.54pm: Early results nothing but 'filler'
The early results mean nothing and only give television commentators something to talk about until any real data comes in, says Dr Stephen Levine.
The political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington said the early results are only filler.
"If they (commentators) were honest they would say: It is only eight o'clock and we have two hours until we can get some hard data," Dr Levine said.
But the pollsters have so far been proved right with National's lead over Labour and the Greens above five per cent, he said.
"Polling organisations get a lot of criticism when they're wrong and there is a lot of variation in the polls but the big picture of all the polls is being reflected on the night so far," Dr Levine said.
He said one interesting point is New Zealand First's initial result, polling over four per cent so far.
"I'm not sure the polls were having New Zealand First over four per cent, so it keeps New Zealand First competitive but it's another victory for the pollsters in that Simon Bridges is so far ahead of Winston Peters and it was fantasy land for Ron Mark to win Rimutaka," Dr Levine said.
8.21pm: Interesting results unfolding in bell weather seats
It is now an hour since polling booths closed and over five per cent of the votes have been tallied but two political science lecturers agree that the early lead to National means nothing.
Dr Alan Simpson from the University of Waikato said it is still early days but there are some interesting initial results.
"Gallagher (Labour) is second to Macindoe (National) in Hamilton West and that is one that we regard as (one of) our bell weather seats.
"And Winston is way, way, way behind Simon Bridges."
Dr Simpson said it was still early days and he was looking forward to seeing results from Rimutaka where New Zealand First's Ron Mark is competing.
Dr Simpson said it appears Nanaia Mahuta and Parekura Horomia are holding on to their respective Maori seats.
"You've got two senior cabinet ministers there and both Horomia and Mahuta have strong connections into Maoridom," he said.
Dr Simpson said Maori have moved past the Seabed and Foreshore Act and entrenching the Maori seats is now the main issue.
7.51pm: Good weather good for Labour
The good weather will suit Labour, a lecturer in political studies says.
Dr Grant Duncan from Massey University said the good weather would help traditional Labour voters get to a polling booth.
He said traditional Labour voters may not have access to transport and in poor weather, they are less likely to vote.
"If the weather is bad, that is generally bad for Labour," Dr Grant said.
But with blue skies across much of the country today, the weather was in Labour's favour, Dr Grant said.
"That's just going on past traditions," he said.
7.38pm: Too early to draw conclusions
The early lead to National means nothing, Dr Grant Duncan says.
The Massey University lecturer said National traditionally get an early run on party votes and the early lead - National's 49.2 per cent to Labour's 31.4 per cent at 7.30pm - means nothing.
He said the reason behind this is not clear but it could be that traditional Labour voters may have to work on Saturday or it could be that special votes are counted first and traditional National voters are more likely to be able to afford to travel overseas.
"Last election was a typical example of that and early in the evening it was all going National's way and later you just watched that gap close and then late in the evening the results for Roskill and Otahuhu just drove it home for Labour," Dr Duncan said.
He said people needed to be cautious when drawing conclusions from early results.
"I would say a lead of say 10 or 12 points is not good news for John Key, he really needs, early in the evening, a solid lead," Dr Grant said.
*****
Our panel consists of:
Dr Grant Duncan: A senior lecturer in public policy at Massey University's School of Social and Cultural Studies.
Dr Bryce Edwards: A lecturer of New Zealand politics, public policy, and public management at the University of Otago.
Professor Stephen Levine: A political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington who has written on each of New Zealand's MMP elections.
Dr Jennifer Lees-Marshment: A lecturer at the University of Auckland who specialises in political marketing.
Dr Alan Simpson: A senior lecturer at the University of Waikato who teaches international relations. His other interests include comparative politics and New Zealand government and politics.
