KEY POINTS:
ew Zealand's new-vehicle market is entering what will almost certainly be its most tumultuous period in decades.
The global financial crisis has bitten deep into sales and the industry faces its sharpest reversal of fortunes since the first flood of used imports in the early 1990s.
With a few weeks' trading left this year, sales for the year are expected to round off at around 98,000 units, between 4000 and 5000 down on the 102,574 cars and commercials sold last year.
The industry can expect a further slump next year, perhaps by 10-12 per cent to around 85,000 units, say analysts.
"It's too early to tell what will happen in 2009," says Motoring Industry Association CEO Perry Kerr.
"We just don't know. But the industry is really starting to feel the economic winds of change. The six-year boom in new-vehicle sales is over for the time being."
Kerr says sales of used imports have been affected more than new vehicles.
"Although new car registrations for November were 27 per cent down on same month last year, registrations of used import cars were 40 per cent down and used import commercial vehicle sales are now at a negligible level," he says.
Used imports are expected to fall further next year. One reason is that good used models are becoming harder to get in Japan because the Japanese are holding on to their cars longer.
In 1997, the average age of cars on the road in Japan was just over seven years. Now it's over 11 years.
Sales in New Zealand of 4898 new cars in November slumped 34.5 per cent against October. The 1639 commercial sales were down 12 per cent for the month.
The only month out of the past six to be considered buoyant was October, when rental fleets beefed up numbers.
The downturn began in July when sales fell 15.7 per cent, the biggest seasonal slump since the 1990s. Sales have since slowed.
Total sales of cars and commercials at the end of November were at 90,509.
Long-time market leader Toyota clearly dominates, with 19,454 sales for 21.5 per cent of the market.
Its share is already up two percentage points on 2007's 19.6 per cent, lending support to industry analysts who say Toyota will grow even more dominant through the tough times.
Second-placed Ford has sold 11,285 vehicles this year for 12.5 per cent of the market. Holden is in third place with 8756 sales for 9.6 per cent.
The traditional NZ big three are followed by Mazda (6708/7.4 per cent), Mitsubishi (5621/6.2), Nissan (5532/6.1), Suzuki (5330/5.9), Honda (5269/5.8), Hyundai (4366/4.8), Volkswagen (2103/2.3), Kia (1740/1.9), Subaru (1541/1.7), Daihatsu (1406/1.5), Daimler (1126/1.2), Audi (1033/1.1).
The 15 best-selling cars so far this year are the Toyota Corolla (5781), Holden Commodore (3944), Suzuki Swift (3199), Ford Falcon (2723), Mazda6 (2045), Ford Focus (1919), Toyota Camry (1814), Mazda3 (1802), Honda Jazz (1686), Ford Mondeo (1595), Honda Accord (1573), Mitsubishi Outlander (1339), Mazda2 (1323), Toyota Yaris (1246), Suzuki SX4 (1167) and Toyota RAV4 (11567).
