Rising wages and costs biggest health strain

Wage and cost increases, rather than an ageing population, could put the greatest strain on New Zealand's health system in the future, a new Treasury report says.

A paper looking at aging and health spending from 1951 to 2051 has found the impact of the ageing population on health spending may be less dire than expected.

"There is room for scepticism, or at least reservations, about a close link between population aging and spending pressures," it says.

How healthy people are - rather than age - could be the real issue determining demand for health care, and health is expected to improve.

"There are a bunch of other drivers we need to be thinking about," said Treasury deputy secretary Peter Mersi.

The average 30-year-old man gets about $900 of health care a year from the Government, while the average 90-year-old man gets about $16,000.

The number of 30-year-old men is expected to increase by about 20 per cent in the next 25 years, and the number of 90-year-olds by 150 per cent. Thus the percentage of health money spent on older people is projected to more than double from 1951 to 2051.

However, the paper found most of the growth in health spending since 1951 had been due to expansion in the range of treatments available and increases in costs and wages.

- NZPA