MetService Severe Weather Warning: 26th-28th July
Video / MetService
Invercargill has smashed its July temperature record by almost 2C as a lingering high promises settled weather for most of the country through the weekend.
A southerly blast is still lining up the mainland early next week - with snow expected in parts of Canterbury, Otago and Southland - but it was the sunshine and relative warmth that were grabbing attention today.
In Invercargill, the temperature reached 18.6C at the airport between 2pm and 3pm.
“It actually smashed its previous record,” MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris told the Herald, crediting a northwesterly windflow over the southern South Island for the balmy temperatures.
“And it’s not a short record there, it goes back to 1948.”
Auckland was a comparatively chilly 15.9C, although still above its July average of around 14C and enjoying dry, calm weather like the rest of the country as a high-pressure system dominated, Ferris said.
“Actually, a lot of Southland today is warmer than what is typical for this time of year, and that’s true across the country. It’s just the difference is bigger in Southland in terms of where they would usually be for temperatures.”
Most of the country is in for a warm and relatively settled weekend but this quickly changes as we enter next week 👀
Current forecasts have: ❄ Potential for heavy snow down to around 500m 🌧 Persistent rain for southeast SI 💨 Easterly gales for the West Coast pic.twitter.com/i7EMoPx5AK
The rest of the weekend would remain dry and settled for most, although there was a risk of fog in Auckland tomorrow morning and a heavy rain warning and two watches have been issued in Fiordland, Ferris said.
The MetService warning is for heavy rain in Fiordland from Bligh Sound to Resolution Island for 17 hours from 8pm tonight. The watches are for Fiordland, north of Bligh Sound, overnight and Fiordland from Resolution Island south overnight and all of tomorrow.
The rain could also spread up the West Coast to Buller on Sunday, he said.
“[But] I think you could say across most main centres it’s looking pretty good across the weekend … [because] the high pressure remains in charge across the North Island this weekend, and in the south there’s a northwesterly windflow which is bringing rain to the western parts, but warmer temperatures in the south.”
Temperatures would remain above average for many, with eastern Canterbury likely the warmest area - 18C is forecast in Ashburton and 17C in Christchurch and Timaru tomorrow.
“[Temperatures] are dropping off a little bit on Sunday. But, [they will] still be on the warmer side of average.”
A "dry July" of a different kind...
Many South Island areas have received less than 50% of their monthly normal 🟤.
Fortunately, needed rain 🟣 is forecast this weekend for the southwest of the island.
“It’s the kind of stuff we see with snow this time of year, but this looks as though it could be the most widespread snow we’ve had in the winter so far.”
While the North Island would escape the worst of the weather, with rain around Mt Taranaki and eastern Bay of Plenty overnight Monday, it was going to be “a mess across the South Island”, Ferris said.
“[The southerly] will bring a prolonged period of heavy rain to eastern parts of the South Island, which are areas that don’t get a lot of rain. So even though the amount of rainfall isn’t maybe as large as we’ll see in other places, it does still look like it could be impactful for the first half of the working week.
“[And] there’s risk of heavy snow above 500 metres for those inland areas of the South Island, but that’s related to how we do the heavy snow warnings - I would expect snow to fall lower than that to some of the townships around Central Otago and, moving up, parts of inland Canterbury could see snow.”
It could be a happy time on skifields like Queenstown's Coronet Peak next weekend, according to long-range forecasts. Photo / Miles Holden
There was still some “wiggle room” on exactly where snow would fall, as it depended on where the heaviest rain was, Ferris said.
The good news was more high pressure was likely at the end of the week.
“It’s perfect for the skifields, snow next week and then the weather clears for the weekend.”
Cherie Howie is an Auckland-based reporter who joined the Herald in 2011. She has been a journalist for more than 20 years and specialises in general news and features.
