Election 2023: Receding red wave could wash high-profile Labour names out of Parliament

Maori Development Minister Willie Jackson. Photo / Mark Mitchell

By Katie Scotcher of RNZ

ANALYSIS

Labour’s caucus looks set to shrink dramatically at the election, as the party struggles to turn around waning support.

The party won a historic MMP majority in 2020, bringing in a whopping 65 MPs.

The red wave saw Labour win 44 electorate seats - 15 of which were previously held by National - and a further 21 candidates entered Parliament on the party list.

But that wave of support has since receded and Labour faces a very different outcome this election, with some of its most high-profile names at risk of not making it back to Parliament.

Sarah Pallett’s success in Ilam was one of the biggest electorate upsets in 2020.

She became the first Labour MP to win the Christchurch seat, taking it off National’s Gerry Brownlee, who had held it for 24 years.

Pallett knows she needs to win Ilam to return to Parliament, telling RNZ: “I’m not going to be making it in on the list.”

She suspects Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji, who is also running for Ilam, could stymie her chances.

“I do think that he will split the left vote and will take votes from me... but... maths is maths at the end of the day.”

Asked if that meant she won’t win the seat, Pallett replied: “We’ll have to see on the day”.

In the Hawke’s Bay electorate of Tukituki, Anna Lorck is optimistic about retaining the seat for Labour.

She claimed it from National’s Lawrence Yule at the last election.

Labour candidates Willow-Jean Prime (L) and Sarah Pallett (R) are facing tough challenges for the electorate seats they currently hold in Northland and Ilam respectively. Photo / RNZ Angus Dreaver and Jean Edwards

“I’ve never been worried. I always go out and fight all the way to the end... never have a plan B,” Lorck told RNZ.

National held the New Plymouth electorate for more than a decade prior to 2020, when it was won by Labour’s Glen Bennett.

“I’m really confident... I believe in my chances that, come the night of the 14th of October, I will continue to be the MP for New Plymouth,” Bennett said.

Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime became the MP for Northland by the slimmest of margins - just 163 votes.

Recent polling of the electorate suggests the race for the seat this election will not be as tight, with Prime trailing behind National’s candidate.

“As I have in the five campaigns that I’ve run in Northland, I’m going hard, I’m making sure the issues are being discussed and that everybody is making a commitment to the ongoing investment that’s needed in Northland,” Prime said.

“I’m not accepting poll results that I’ve seen and I’m out there campaigning right up until October 14th.”

Other electorates Labour flipped red in 2020 are expected to go back blue - Rangitata, Ōtaki, Upper Harbour, Hamilton East, East Coast and Whanganui. It’s unlikely the Labour MPs representing those seats will return to Parliament.

But the Labour Party is quietly confident about retaining two electorates it claimed from National.

Kieran McAnulty convincingly won Wairarapa in 2020, but admits it will not be as easy this election.

“Oh, I don’t think that I’ll win with the same majority that I did last time. I don’t think anyone would think that,” McAnulty said.

Rachel Boyack won Nelson from National’s Nick Smith, who had represented the electorate since 1996.

She’s hoping to be elected for a second term.

“I’ve got deep connections to this place for over 15 years. I’m working really hard every day to make sure I’m getting out amongst our locals,” Boyack told RNZ.

The Labour Party was inevitably going to lose some MPs after bringing in so many at the last election. But recent predictions suggest Labour could be left with a caucus of 33, meaning more than 20 sitting MPs will not make it back to Parliament.

Labour is likely to win approximately 28 electorates, but seats like Ōhāriu, Northcote and Takanini could go either way.

Depending on the party’s success in the electorates, some of Labour’s biggest names - Andrew Little, David Parker, Adrian Rurawhe, Willie Jackson, Jan Tinetti - could be gone.

Minister of Immigration Andrew Little. Photo / Hayden Woodward

Labour leader Chris Hipkins claims his party will do much better than the polls suggest.

“We’ve really picked up quite a bit of momentum over the last week and I’m feeling very optimistic that in two weeks’ time when the polls close, we will do significantly better than the polls have been predicting,” Hipkins said.

But some within Labour’s caucus have inadvertently admitted to RNZ the party will likely lose the election and what matters now is saving the furniture.

That ramps up pressure on Hipkins to lift support for the party in the polls.

Labour may have celebrated the number of candidates it brought to Parliament in 2020, but fast-forward three years and Hipkins now leads a mega caucus packed with MPs who are growing increasingly nervous they will lose their jobs in just under two weeks’ time.

There have already been three instances of Labour MPs speaking out of turn in the past couple of weeks, including most recently Ingrid Leary saying she would have preferred to bring in a capital gains and wealth tax.

Hipkins will be hoping the momentum he claims is building behind Labour stops other worried MPs from doing the same.