By RUTH BERRY, political reporter
The Government is bracing itself for a byelection with Tariana Turia poised to resign from Labour.
Tainui MP Nanaia Mahuta signalled last night that she may also leave the party.
The MPs will tell the Labour caucus today they will oppose the controversial legislation, to be unveiled tomorrow.
Prime Minister Helen Clark has made it clear Mrs Turia will lose her ministerial positions as a result of crossing the floor.
Mrs Turia has previously warned Helen Clark she will force a byelection if her job is taken from her.
Helen Clark and Mrs Turia spoke yesterday afternoon about Mrs Turia's future. Sources said her resignation from the party was now inevitable.
But others, supporters of Mrs Turia, suggested this may be the result of a deliberate move to force her out.
They also accused the Government of hyping up issues around Mrs Turia, to detract attention from the legislation.
Ms Mahuta confirmed last night that she would register her opposition today. Asked whether she would remain a Labour MP, she said "it could be" that she had lost confidence in the party.
It is not known whether Mrs Turia will hand in her warrants, or force Helen Clark to strip them from her. She is the Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector, and an Associate Minister in the Social Development, Housing, Health and Maori Affairs portfolios.
Mrs Turia had said she would abstain from voting on the legislation, but has been reviewing that decision after criticism from some iwi.
The Labour caucus will vote today to support the bill's Thursday tabling in Parliament, forcing the pair to formally declare their opposition.
Helen Clark did not confirm either MP's final position yesterday, but said "no more than two" were expected to oppose it.
She indicated yesterday that her patience with Mrs Turia had worn thin, and she was relieved matters would come to a head today.
Mrs Turia refused to comment yesterday. But Whanganui River Trust Board chairman Archie Taiaroa, in charge of recent constituent meetings held on Mrs Turia's behalf, said a byelection was an option she would consider if she lost her ministerial positions.
"The first question is, 'does she want to remain in politics and if so, how can you best do it?'
"There are all sorts of possibilities, but we'll be talking about the possibility of a byelection."
There were concerns Mrs Turia might be rendered ineffective if she were relegated to the Government backbenches, he said.
There has been little recent talk of a Maori party, but Mrs Turia's stance might revive that. Otherwise, she could stand as an independent.
The Government appears to be assured of the support of United Future and New Zealand First for the foreshore legislation and does not need the two MPs' votes.
Asked if she had any sympathy for Mrs Turia's position, Helen Clark said: "I've been here for 22 1/2 years and I've voted for things I don't particularly agree with.
"But I knew when I came in here there was a decision-making process, and that you took full part in that and were guided by the outcome."
In a further sign of her frustration, when asked what she was counselling Mrs Turia to do, she said: "In general terms, I think I've probably been counselling Tariana for 7 1/2 years."
She said she had not yet decided how quickly Mrs Turia would be stripped of her ministerial posts.
Labour president Mike Williams said he had heard no talk yet of a byelection and could not say whether Labour would contest one.
Sources said yesterday that one of the nails in the coffin for Mrs Turia was the recent decision to reverse plans to allow whanau to claim customary rights under the legislation.
The Government was always ambivalent about this, as it could vastly increase the size and complexity of the process.
Only hapu and iwi will now be able to claim the rights.
Another point of contention was the Government's refusal to allow the courts to issue compensation orders if they found that rights existed but could not be accommodated under the new framework.
Tariana Turia - in or out
Herald Feature: Maori issues
Related information and links
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