New Zealanders have given the Government a rating of 4.2 out of 10 in the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey, the lowest on record since it started measuring in mid-2017.
Falling concern about cost of living/inflation – down five percentage points to 50%, the lowest in three years – appears not to have done enough to buoy Government popularity.
The Ipsos New Zealand survey released to RNZ was carried out between February 24 and March 2, and asked 1002 New Zealanders what they thought were the top three most important issues facing the country today.
Health is still the second-biggest concern – its rating unchanged at 41%, despite an increase in concern among older New Zealanders.
Crime has dropped from 3rd (27%) to 5th (25%), overtaken by the economy (30%) and housing (27%).
Government rating hits new low
New Zealanders' average rating of the Government’s performance in the previous six months – a measure the survey has been assessing since mid-2017 – saw a statistically significant drop from 4.7 out of 10 in October last year to 4.2.
Some 41% of people surveyed gave a rating of 3 or less out of 10.
The previous lowest rating was 4.5 in August 2023, just ahead of the October election that saw Labour turfed out of government.
National is still seen as the party best able to manage inflation, the economy and crime – although its lead over Labour has continued to shrink on all three measures.
On the top concern, inflation, 32% of people felt National was best able to tackle the issue, down from 35% in October. Labour’s rating also fell, but by less – from 30% to 28%.
On the economy, National fell from 40% to 36%, Labour holding steady at 29%, while on crime National fell from 39% to 36%, with Labour also dropping from 23% to 22%.
Labour retained pole position on health – steady at 36%, while National’s rating fell from 27 to 23%. It also reclaimed the top spot on housing/price of housing, with 29% of people rating it most able compared to National’s 27% – both down from 30% in October.
Labour claimed top position on health and reclaimed top spot on housing. Photo / George Heard
Labour also improved its position on all the 15 remaining top-20 issues. The party was rated highest on nine of them (poverty/inequality, unemployment, education, transport/public transport/infrastructure, drug/alcohol abuse, race relations/racism, household debt/personal debt, immigration, population/overpopulation) and equal with National on petrol prices/fuel.
National was rated best on taxation and defence/foreign affairs, the Greens rated best on climate change and the environment, and Te Pāti Māori rated best on issues facing Māori.
Inflation concern continues downward trend
Inflation/cost of living dropped from 55% in the October survey to 50%, a statistically significant fall that continues a downward trend. It compares to the rating across the Tasman, where 64% of Australians said it was among their top concerns.
The last time inflation was rated this low in New Zealand was the October 2021 survey, on 31%.
It has remained the top concern for New Zealanders since it surged in the following February 2022 survey to 53% – overtaking housing and health.
It reached a peak of 65% a year later in February 2023, but has been in steady decline since – barring a minor increase between February and May last year.
The Reserve Bank has continued cutting the official cash rate – the latest shift in February a 50-basis-point cut from 4.25 to 3.75 – taking pressure off as price inflation slowed, the consumer price index falling to 2.2%, within the target band, in September.
Inflation was also considered a bigger concern among left-leaning voters, with 52% saying it was among their top three concerns compared to 48% for those saying they voted more on the right.
However, the economy rose 2 percentage points to 30%. This may be a reflection of the ignition of global trade conflicts and tariff threats in Donald Trump’s second presidency.
It was even more of a concern for right-leaning voters, 44% of whom identified it in their top-three concerns, second-equal with healthcare. The 10% of voters saying no party was capable of managing the economy was an all-time high.
Other concerns
All other changes in the top five issues were within the margin of error.
Concern about health/hospitals remained the second-biggest concern, with no change in ratings by New Zealanders from October, 41% of those surveyed rating a top issue. This compared to the Australian rating of 27%.
Some 12% of New Zealanders surveyed said no party was capable of managing healthcare, an all-time high.
Housing has remained relatively steady as a concern since last May, hovering within two percentage points. The current rating of 27% is a record low, previously reached in last year’s August survey. Labour overtook National as best able to manage the issue for the first time since February 2023.
Concerns about housing have remained steady. Photo / Getty Images
Crime/law and order dropped two percentage points from 27% to 255, continuing a downward trend from the 40% peak in May 2023 and dropping it into 5th place.
The other top 10 concerns were poverty/inequality which remained steady at 18%, climate change which fell from 17% to 15%, unemployment rising from 13% to 14%, and education which was steady at 10%.
Issues facing Māori, drug/alcohol abuse, petrol prices/fuel, and transport/public transport/infrastructure were all 10th equal at 8%. Household debt/personal debt fell from 10th at 10% in October, to 14th at 7%.
The Ipsos online poll has a sample size of 1002 people and a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. It had no external sponsors or partners, initiated and run by Ipsos “because we think it is important for businesses and organisations to understand the challenges that New Zealanders face in the context of their everyday lives”.
Results were weighted by age, gender and region to reflect the wider New Zealand population. Some results may sum to 100% and others may show a difference higher or lower than the actual due to rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” or “not stated” responses.
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