Any honest assessment of Wairarapa-Bush's chances of successfully challenging Hawke's Bay for provincial rugby's top prize, the Ranfurly Shield, in Napier today would have them at zilch.
Yes, the likelihood of wintery conditions and a heavy ground might hinder the home team's stated intentions of bringing their speedy backs into play at every conceivable opportunity but, even so, they should simply be a class above a new-look Wairarapa-Bush squad which, no matter what the weather, will do well to keep the winning margin below the half-century mark.
It is good that head coach Josh Syms and his captain, Tim Priest, have adopted a positive tone leading into the game. In their heart of hearts, they will know Wairarapa-Bush are confronting mission impossible but people in their position can hardly be that harsh in their comments, can they?
The plain truth is the most Wairarapa-Bush can hope for in today's game is to come away knowing they gave it their very best shot no matter what the end result.
After the disappointments of last year when they failed to make either the Meads Cup or Lochore Cup semis, they desperately need to build early confidence for the Heartland championship. The more competitive they are here, the bigger the boost their confidence will be given.