IT'S a waste of time asking John Bary what he thinks of his stable star Jimmy Choux going around as $1.90 favourite for tomorrow's $200,000 Windsor Park Plate at Hastings.
Bary doesn't bet - he worries only about winning.
Punters are a different breed. Most of them will be disappointed one punter wrecked the TAB's market by plonking $22,000 on Jimmy Choux at $2.20 yesterday morning.
Nervous TAB bookmakers held their nerve at the $2.20 until another $4000 came aboard at those odds and the liability became too great, forcing the price to crash to $1.90.
"There is money also for Mufhasa, but outside those two we've hardly laid a bet," head bookie Thad Taylor said.
"I personally don't think Jimmy Choux is value at $1.90, but our liability is dictating the price."
The move has forced punters into backing something to beat the hot favourite, which can be dicey.
Late yesterday the weight of money for Mufhasa brought him in from $5 to $4.80.
There is little doubt Jimmy Choux's solid-finishing second to Mufhasa in the $200,000 Makfi Challenge Stakes makes him the logical choice but the $1.90 v the $4.80 on Mufhasa and $5.50 for Wall Street seems out of kilter.
Jimmy Choux picked up $2,677,253 racing against his own age at two and three, but it's difficult to turn your back on two horses who have been doing it for seasons and between them have banked $3,925,806.
The jump from 1400m to 1600m is going to suit Jimmy Choux slightly more than Mufhasa, but the latter is no slouch at 1600m.
Two of Mufhasa's three wins at 1600m have been in the group one WFA Classic at Otaki, where he ran 1:32.89 and in the group two Couplands Mile at Riccarton where he ran even faster.
The 1600m distance record of the three favourites:
Mufhasa: 9 starts, 3 wins.
Wall Street: 15 starts, 9 wins.
Jimmy Choux: 4 starts, 3 wins.
The barrier draws are interesting - Bary wanted an inside gate for Jimmy Choux and received No9 and Jeff Lynds was almost certainly looking for the outside second half of the field for Wall Street and copped No3.
Wall Street drew the same barrier in the Makfi Challenge and appeared to resent being jammed up along the rail for most of the race.
He is a horse who likes clear room to work in and Opie Bosson's job this time will be to ensure he gets that from his inside gate.
Jimmy Choux's No9 could be an issue because the 1600m starting point at Hastings is almost certainly New Zealand's worst.
There is a very short run to the first bend and those drawn wide have either to sprint quickly to get over in front of the fast beginners or drop back to avoid being caught wide in mid-field.
The first 200m of this race is going to be interesting.
Despite the disparity in their prices at the TAB, a win from either of the favourite trio will not surprise.
The surprise will come if one of them does not win.
Baldovino is a remarkable runner.
He has had only three races - unbeaten - and jumps from a rating 80 band to weight-for-age.
It's difficult to provide an analogy of just what victory for him would represent, but a 14-year-old running in the Olympic marathon might be close.
He is $12 fourth favourite.
A good track is expected after Hawke's Bay escaped widespread rain this week.