KEY POINTS:
Do we have a break in the chain coming up? A weekend full of sun and dry skies? It's possible! In fact, at this stage, it's looking very promising for much of the country.
So firstly, the usual weather disclaimer: long range forecasts in winter
are notoriously changeable - but we can usually get a good feel for things 6 or 7 days out, ie: whether or not the "chances" of rain or wind are high or low.
As of Monday morning the chances are low for us to have another wet and windy weekend. In fact, all the long range models that we use are showing a nice big anticyclone over the country - bringing a return to colder nights but sunny skies and dry days. Because the wind will be coming from the south west for Aucklanders there is the risk of a few showers this week being blown in from the Tasman. But Thursday through Sunday look pretty good at the moment.
The reason we've been getting so much rain over the country is because we haven't had the big blocking highs over us. In fact, the Tasman Sea has had a serious lack of high pressure over it, allowing low after low to form.
In Summer, when droughts affected so much of the country, it was large high pressure systems forming over the Tasman Sea and stretching a ridge over New Zealand that stopped the rain bands from developing or moving in.
So yes - a forecast for mainly sunny, dry, calm days is certainly looking more likely this weekend across much of New Zealand than it has for a couple of months.
On another note - It was great to read an article in yesterday's Herald On Sunday that shows weather is actually more important to us than sport - at least for internet users anyway!
The word "Weather" has made it in to the top 10 things New Zealanders are Googling, coming in at number 9. In fact, weather seemed to be almost stand alone compared to other things that made it to the other top 10 searches:
1: Games
2: Bebo
3: Lyrics
4: Youtube
5: Trademe
6: Google
7: Trade Me
8: Hotmail
9: Weather
10: You tube
Source: Herald On Sunday/ Google
Apart from Games and Lyrics, the other searches were all brand names.
Weather has always been a hugely popular topic of conversation for Kiwis. We rely so heavily on it to make our economy work and to suit our incredibly "outdoors" way of living. I've said before that it's pretty much impossible to go through a day without talking about the weather let alone going for a day without hearing anyone else talking about it. I can't imagine the weather is talked about much in Alice Springs or in the middle of Nevada. "So, how about this weather we're having?" "You mean, dry?" "......yup". .....and the perfect time for a tumbleweed to blow through.
The fact that "Weather" makes it in to our 10 top searches online simply backs up the huge amount of emails, comments and questions I get every day from visitors to the Weather Watch Centre or friends and family. Weather is definitely a hugely important part of our lives - and I hope that the coverage at weatherwatch.co.nz is meeting the needs for those of you who want to read about all the latest weather news across New Zealand.
Have a great week - and fingers crossed that our big high pressure system rolls in as expected!
Philip Duncan
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
