The probability of another plus-7 magnitude quake within the next month has fallen to 27 per cent - but the chances of multiple large aftershocks between 5.0 and 5.9 happening each day remains a virtual certainty.
A new aftershock forecast published by GeoNet today - the first since Monday's quake magnitude was upgraded from 7.5 to 7.8 - estimated an average three 5.0 to 5.9 quakes within the next 24 hours, along with an average 16 within the week and 32 this month.
There was a 29 per cent probability of one or more 6.0 to 6.9 quakes within 24 hours, a 77 per cent probability for the week and a 95 per cent probability across the next 30 days.
But there was just a 3 per cent probability of another quake measuring over 7.0 in the next day, compared with estimated odds of 14 per cent this week and 27 per cent this month.
The "extremely" likely scenario was that aftershocks would continue to decrease in frequency - and in line with forecasts - over the next 30 days.