The prison population is forecast to rise by more than 1000 between now and 2010, prompting the Government to give an assurance that it will not reduce sentences for serious offenders.
But Justice Minister Mark Burton said non-custodial sentences "may be more productive" and the projected growth in the muster was part of the reason they were being considered.
He said the tougher sentencing options enacted in 2002 were reflected in the new figures.
"The Government is committed to keeping New Zealand families safe and secure," Mr Burton said.
"There will not be any lessening in penalties for serious repeat offenders and hardened criminals.
"For those people from whom the public must be protected there is no other option than imprisonment."
Mr Burton said the latest forecast was higher than previously predicted.
"It shows that the growth in prison numbers experienced over the past decade looks set to continue over the next five-year period," he said.
"The tougher sentencing options this Government has put in place through the 2002 Sentencing and Parole Acts are in part reflected in the prison population figures.
"Four new prisons will become operational by 2007."
Corrections Minister Damien O'Connor walked into a storm of opposition protest last month when he suggested considering more creative ways to reduce the prison population and cited experiences in other countries.
After returning from a fact-finding trip to Britain, the Netherlands and Finland, he talked about systems which allowed inmates to go home for one weekend a month, and be paid for work carried out during sentences.
National's law and order spokesman, Simon Power, accused him of wanting to "throw open the prison gates" in a bid to solve the overcrowding problem.
Mr Burton was careful to give assurances that no hasty decisions would be made.
After saying serious repeat offenders and hardened criminals would continue to be locked up, he suggested that "for some others" non-custodial sentences might be more productive and a smarter, more effective use of taxpayers' money.
"The growth in prisoner numbers is part of the reason that the Government is giving consideration to new effective ways that offenders can repay their debt to society," he said.
"Any new sanctions would be thoroughly evaluated and would complement existing measures to ensure the public is safe from dangerous and violent offenders."
New Zealand has the second highest imprisonment rate in the Western world, behind the United States.
- NZPA
Prisoner numbers go higher than predicted
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