Prison population set to rise by 15 per cent

An expected 15 per cent increase in the prison population over the next five years can be put down to better detection rates and longer sentences, says Justice Minister Phil Goff.

The Ministry of Justice's annual update of forecasts of the prison population released at the weekend predicts the number of prisoners will increase from an average of 6865 in 2004-05 to an average of 7880 in 2009-10.

Mr Goff said the main drivers in the predicted increases were:

* Continued increase in the number of prosecutions due to more crimes being solved by police and the recent appointment of additional judges enabling cases to be heard sooner.

* Expected rises in the proportion of the imposed sentence served by inmates as a result of the Parole Act 2002.

* Increase in the use of custodial remand (as opposed to bail) as a result of the Bail Act 2000.

* Rise in imprisonment rates and the average length of sentences as a result of the Sentencing Act 2002.

* More offenders being sentenced to preventive detention.

"The forecast confirms that the Government is delivering on its promise to take a tougher approach to crime," Mr Goff said.

Corrections Minister Paul Swain said the forecast confirmed that the prison system would continue to be under pressure this year.

"The opening of the 350-bed Northland prison in March will ease some of that pressure. It is the first of four new prisons that will add more than 1500 beds by 2007," he said.

Mr Goff said that, in the short term, imprisonment was necessary to prevent serious and recidivist offenders from continuing to commit crime.

"However, a growing prison population is not the long-term answer. That lies in the Government's efforts to tackle the causes of crime; in particular by early intervention programmes to assist children in dysfunctional families, and preventive education and health programmes dealing with issues such as truancy and education failure, and drug and alcohol abuse."

But National's law and order spokesman said last night that Labour was in dreamland if it thought its "soft" policies were keeping dangerous criminals off the streets.

Tony Ryall said National would abolish parole for career criminals and violent offenders.