KEY POINTS:
Our weekend appears to be a bit of a mixed bag this weekend but despite forecasts of rain I don't think it's going to be all that bad. There's a lot of high air pressure around the country and it's doing a pretty good job at protecting much of the North Island from the wet or cold weather. The South Island, on the other hand has had a good dumping of rain this week - especially the West Coast, but again conditions look as though they'll improve quickly by Saturday.
A low is expected to rapidly deepen off Australia's east coast but it's doesn't have a clear path straight towards us. In fact many regions across the country could've been better off over winter if we'd had high pressure blocking the lows from moving in. Saturday is looking relatively good across the country with skies clearing as that high stretches over us.
Some forecasters are predicting a very wet day in some areas on Sunday but the latest few models I've looked at show our high may just block that rain band for much of the day. Clouds and northerlies will certainly build and that means the warmth will return to many places - especially the east coast.
Of course in Spring weather patterns can change quickly and because people are getting out doors more due to the longer, warmer, days, we'll be closely monitoring the rain bands at the Weather Watch Centre so make sure you check in before mowing the lawns or taking the family out! Sunday will be the day to watch.
We may see some heavy falls on Sunday night or into Monday - but it really does depend on how quickly that high moves out east. (Strong highs push the clouds down so heavy rain can't form - but as the air pressure lowers - when the high moves away - the clouds are free to build higher.)
EEK IT'S IKE
Wow, I've had 15 years of writing experience and that just above headline is a shocker! Sorry it's the end of a very long week and my energy is soley going into weather watching rather than headline creating! Anyway Hurricane Ike has formed in the Atlantic and it's exploded quickly into a Category 4 hurricane - view the latest satellite image of it here.
The hurricane is heading towards the Bahamas and Florida but it's still too far out to see if it's going to have a direct hit on the US. I'd imagine those in Florida - and again the Gulf Coast - will be very concerned.
Actually I just re-read what I wrote and it reminded me of a question I was asked earlier this week. Why do US hurricanes create so much interest but when many millions of people are affected in countries like India we seem to hardly cover it?
Well, it's a very good question. I don't really have the perfect answer either - maybe you have a comment and I'd love to hear it - but all I can think of are these reasons.
1) Many New Zealanders don't know these countries as well as we know America. It's hard to relate to a city we've never heard of (say in China or India or Africa) as opposed to one that we've known since kids. We have been a part of the American life since popular music and tv came to NZ.
2) It's like the new guy at work - you're probably not going to be as interested in his life as you are one of your closest friends. Perhaps exposure to China (through the Olympics) will mean we'll take more of an interest in Chinese news now?
3) The coverage of storms in America is simply outstanding. They have weather news teams unlike anywhere on the planet - 24/7 coverage, amazing graphics and it's all free to view.
When the South West Pacific Cyclone season kicks off on November 1st I hope the Weather Watch Centre can bring you all the latest weather news directly here to the Herald and of course our own site!
Have a great weekend - and enjoy the sun (whenever it shines!).
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Black clouds roll in at the end of a sunny day in Auckland. Photo / Martin Sykes
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
