Power play: Clark seizes the moment

By ANDREW LAXON

Why has Labour picked July 27 as election day?

Labour is high in the polls and hopes to get enough votes to govern alone. After much internal debate, it has decided that the best way is to call the election as early as possible - before its poll ratings drop too far.

There are dangers in this. The biggest is that it could be seen as panicky, since six weeks is the bare minimum timeframe to run an early election.

There are also 92,000 voters still not on the roll - a potential loss to Labour, which gets about 10 per cent of its vote from people who sign up as a result of advertising campaigns.

The election date announcement was delayed until yesterday partly for this reason. However, the figure is still a lot lower than at the last election, when 380,000 potential voters had not signed up two months out from election day.

Conventional wisdom says Labour struggles to get its voters out, especially in the middle of winter. The party's landslide in the July 1984 snap election suggests that this no longer applies.

Why have an early election at all?

This question has been puzzling many voters for months, despite regular attempts by Labour's spin doctors to make it look inevitable.

A Herald-DigiPoll last month showed 58 per cent of voters, including 64 per cent of Labour supporters, saw no need for an early election.

However, the constant speculation seemed to produce its own momentum. When the Herald rang Auckland civic and business leaders a few weeks later, most replied that they still saw no need for an early election - but if there had to be one, they wanted it as soon as possible.

Some said the uncertainty was affecting business. Albany Toyota managing director Andrew MacKenzie said new models were selling well but used car sales had dropped since early poll talk began.

Isn't political instability the reason?

Not really. Helen Clark argued at yesterday's press conference that the break-up of the Alliance had led to time-wasting tactics by the Opposition in Parliament, obstructing Government legislation.

National leader Bill English called this reason "unmitigated rubbish". As he pointed out, Clark could hardly claim to be leading a strong Government and then in the next breath argue that political instability had forced her to call an early election.

Herald columnist Colin James says National did overplay its hand with stalling tactics against Government bills and its endless points of order over Jim Anderton's farcical claim to lead the Alliance in Parliament when he had left the party.

That gave Clark the excuse she needed, says James, but "there is no constitutional, governmental or parliamentary necessity for the election. Helen Clark has a majority for her programme and for her Government committed through to November."

So what's the real reason?

Labour wants to turn its high poll ratings into a victory now before any number of issues, from the Alliance's disintegration to the teachers' strike, lead to a fall in popularity. Even then, it would take an unexpected political disaster for Labour to actually lose.

It is more concerned with aiming for an outright victory, which consistent poll ratings of 50 per centor more since February suggestthat it could achieve.

While some commentators think this is unlikely in practice - James says it's hard to tell but his hunch is Labour won't quite make it - the closer Labour gets, the less influence a coalition partner will have anyway.

This is important now that the compliant Anderton has been relegated to a bit part in coalition-building and Labour faces more opposition from the Greens or NZ First.

Won't the Alliance meltdown and Greens' GM ultimatum affect the election?

The break-up of the Alliance mentioned by Clark is probably the least of Labour's worries, but it could be embarrassed if Laila Harre, who is still in the Cabinet, uses any inside information in an election campaign.

Much trickier is the Greens' ultimatum against the release of genetically modified organisms in October next year, which has caused their support to soar in three polls in the past week.

James says Labour claims to have polling showing most voters do not support the Greens' stance. The question then becomes: how hard does Labour push the issue?

Clark has virtually thrown the Greens' ultimatum back at them already. If she gets any tougher, says James, she could impress voters by refusing to let a small party push Labour around - but she also risks looking too authoritarian.

What else could trip Labour up?

The teachers' strike, which is developing into a game of chicken between Labour and its usual ally, the Post Primary Teachers Association. Both sides desperately want to resolve the issue, but neither wants to be pressured into giving away too much.

Labour is also uncomfortably aware that the union lacks control over its increasingly angry members, as last month's round of wildcat strikes showed. The party has to resolve the dispute in time for its campaign launch on June 30 or face television coverage of hundreds of teachers picketing outside.

The other wild card remains the police investigation into Helen Clark's fake paintings. Prosecution still seems unlikely, but Clark didn't help with her promise to say a lot more about the investigation once police had finished their "elephant act in the strawberry patch".

James mentions electricity price rises as another possible factor. Wholesale prices could jump in the next six weeks if we have dry weather and a cold snap. This won't directly affect household power bills, but the negative headlines could help to sway disillusioned natural Labour voters, who already see little reason to get out and vote.

What are the big election issues?

James prefers to turn this question around and list the three reasons Clark is such a popular Prime Minister.

First, he says, the economic outlook is favourable, which is partly good luck and partly good management by the Government.

Second, he says, Clark has given New Zealand its strongest leadership for 20 years since Sir Robert Muldoon - even 50 years, going back to wartime Labour leader Peter Fraser. Third, she has modified hardline free market policies so people can relax and feel they have a moderate Government.

Beyond that, he says, the issues are the same as always - the state of household finances, followed by education, health, law and order and job security.

"Labour is not doing ideally in people's minds, but it's doing not too badly and first-term Governments usually get the benefit of the doubt."

Will National voters defect to Labour to shut out the Greens?

This is shaping as one of the most interesting tactical battles of the election.

National voters have an awkward choice if their party's dismal polling continues. They can vote National and possibly watch the Greens dictate to Labour over issues such as GM. Or they can hold their noses and vote Labour this time - theoretically giving Clark an outright majority and keeping the Government as middle-of-the-road as possible.

A UMR poll last week reported that four out of 10 National voters were considering a tactical vote for Labour. James is convinced that some will actually do this.

"I've been coming across this fora year and I've had people asrecently as last night telling methis - people who have never voted Labour before and who arenatural National Party voters.

"How many will actually do it on the day? Not nearly as many as have been telling me they will, but enough to make it very difficult for National."

James says Bill English's insistence yesterday that Labour would not get a majority was really aimed at his own core vote, urging National supporters not to jump ship.

Don't Governments usually lose when they call snap elections?

No. This New Zealand myth seems to have grown up around Muldoon's disastrous decision to call a snap election in 1984. In the only other snap election in living memory, National went to the country early over the 1951 waterfront strike and was returned with an increased majority.

Although Clark's excuse for a snap election this time has shades of Muldoon's complaining about backbencher Marilyn Waring in 1984, James believes Labour will not be punished by voters in the same way. He agrees with Labour president Mike Williams, who predicts that the party will weather a few days bad press before voters get back to the real issues.

The real lesson of history, James adds, could come from the three first-term Governments last century which increased their majority in a second term - Labour in 1938, National in 1951 and Labour 1987. In all three cases, the economy was doing well and household finances were in good shape "and that's the case right now".

Feature: Election 2002

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