German carmaker's dipping revenue is good gauge of tough global economic climate, says motoring editor Alastair Sloane
KEY POINTS:
The business people at the BBC World Service reckon it's a better economic barometer than the best brains: watch Porsche, they say.
If the German carmaker is selling plenty of cars, the world is in good shape. If sales are slow, things are sad.
The world has been pretty kind to Porsche over the 12 months to July 31, the best business year in the company's 60-year history.
Profit before taxes for the Porsche Group in 2007-08 increased by 46 per cent to more than 8.5 billion ($20 billion), says the company. Much of this came from transactions when Porsche Group increased its stake in the Volkswagen Group.
The firm's vehicle division rode high on the hog, too. It hired more staff and increased production. Turnover was up 1.3 per cent to almost $18 billion. Overall sales were up 1.2 per cent to 98,652 units.
The Cayenne sports utility vehicle was the big player with sales of 45,478 units, up 34 per cent on the previous year.
The 911 series fell 16 per cent to 31,423 units, mostly because of a new model mid-stream. Boxster and Cayman sales were also down roughly 16 per cent to a combined 21,747 units, again because of upcoming new models.
But Porsche doesn't expect the 2008-09 year to be as kind and is warning of a significant drop in sales.
"The signs of a severe decrease in demand in the automotive industry are unmistakable the world over, and it is virtually impossible to calculate further developments, particularly in the USA, Porsche's largest single market," the company says.
"Porsche will hardly be able to escape this downward trend, so that currently we do not assume that we will be able to repeat the high total sales of the previous business year."
The signs are already there. Sales in New Zealand so far this year are running at half of last year's numbers. Worldwide, Porsche sales since August 1 are down more than 5000 units on last year, to 25,200 from 30,700.
Revenue for the same period has slipped to around $5 billion from $5.6 billion. The carmaker will have a more accurate picture of what 2009 might bring when when it reveals its four-monthly interim report in a few weeks.
Meantime, it is scaling down production to fall in line with reduced demand. It will be beefed up again early next year for the new Boxster, Cayman and diesel Cayenne, and the company's fourth model line and first four-door saloon, the Panamera Gran Turismo.
The carmaker has just released the first official photographs of the Panamera, roughly a year out from its arrival in New Zealand.
It resembles a stretched version of the 911 coupe, complete with four doors, a longer bonnet, extended roofline, and large rear tailgate. It also picks up design cues from both the 911, Boxster and Cayman.
But unlike those three and their flat-six rear- and mid-mounted engines, the four-door will have its powerplant in the front, a first for Porsche since the V8-powered 928 of 1978-95. Other front-engined Porsches were the in-line four-cylinder 924, 944 and 968.
The Panamera will be launched at the Geneva Motor Show in March. It is expected to land here next October, powered by a 260kW direct-injection 4.8-litre V8 engine mated to either a six-speed manual gearbox or seven-speed Doppelkupplungsgetriebe (PDK for short) double-clutch unit, also in use in the 911.
Buyers will also have the choice of rear-drive and all-wheel-drive. The rear-drive models will be badged "S" and the all-wheel-drive variants "4S" in keeping with Porsche designation. There will also be a go-faster 368kW turbocharged version.
No price yet but word on the street has the various models at between $230,000 and $320,000. Later, around 2010-11, an entry-level 3.5-litre V6 producing 220kW will appear along with a two-mode petrol-electric hybrid version.
Full details of the transmissions and engines, including that of the hybrid, will be revealed at the Geneva launch.
In principle, the PDK, like the Volkswagen Group's Double Shift Gearbox (DSG), consists of a conventional manual gearbox and a hydraulic control system divided into two separate transmission units.
Two wet clutches in radial arrangement, controlled hydraulically, and using oil for both cooling and lubrication, form the heart of the transmission. One clutch handles the uneven gear ratios (1,3,5,7) and reverse, and the other the even gears (2,4,6).
Via a number of pressure valves, the hydraulic control unit masterminds both the wet clutches and the shift cylinders to activate the transmission ratio required.
The big advantage is an even faster gearshift than with a conventional manual gearbox or torque converter automatic transmission.
It's pretty much a simultaneous process - the clutch on one transmission opens or disengages while the clutch on the other transmission closes or engages.
The gears are already in mesh when shifting and the power of the engine need not be interrupted in the process. Porsche says PDK contributes mightily to a 12 per cent fuel saving in the 911.
The surprise component in the luxury Panamera saloon is the all-wheel-drive option. The early spy pictures and leaked stories pointed to a rear-drive platform only for the first-time Porsche.
Official pictures of the flagship's four-seat interior will come later, although Porsche says the backrests of the two individual rear seats fold forward to increase luggage space.
Says the company blurb: "Like all Porsche models, the Panamera is oriented in every respect to the needs and wishes of the driver.
"But now, thanks to the new concept of space and the sporting architecture of the interior, the car's occupants are also able to experience this special 'pilot feeling' from all four seats. All four occupants enjoy supreme ergonomic comfort on both the front seats and the two firmly contoured single seats at the rear."
The Panamera measures 4970mm long, 1418mm high and 1931mm wide - 80mm wider than even the widebodied all-wheel-drive versions of the 911. It is 130mm taller than the 911 too.
Porsche said earlier in the year that it has an annual sales target of 20,000 Panameras, although it might revise that target in its interim report next month.
The new model will be assembled at its Leipzig plant in Germany, where a 22,000sq m production facility and logistics centre is under construction.
The Panamera engines will be built at Porsche's main plant in Zuffenhausen, Stuttgart, and painted bodyshells from Volkswagen's Hanover plant. Porsche says 70 per cent of the Panamera's components will be produced in Germany.
