KEY POINTS:
New Zealand's population is expected to grow for some time yet, but the rate of expansion will drop as the number of deaths catches up, then overtakes the national birth rate.
Statistics New Zealand projections show population growth beginning to slow, with the population peaking at just over five million in the late 2020s but not heading any higher.
The growth rate has sat around 1.4 per cent a year since 2001 but this will drop off as the number of deaths each year soars to match births.
Statistics NZ predicts births will stay at around 60,000 a year through to 2061 and net migration will remain around 10,000 per year.
In the same period annual deaths should more than double from 28,000 to 62,000, caused by a greater number of elderly due to the large number of people born from the 1950s through to the 1970s .
By the mid-2020s people aged 65-and-over were expected to outnumber those aged under 15 - children currently outnumber the elderly by almost 2 to 1.
By the late 2020s footpaths could be crowded with walking frames and mobility scooters as the number of pensioners shuffles over the one million mark - on its way to about 1.4 million in the 2050s.
- NZPA
