KEY POINTS:
The polling trendlines point towards a modest overall majority for the National bloc - at worst a clear plurality over the Labour bloc, needing the Maori Party to talk deals.
The trend for National, starting from May and projected forward to tomorrow, takes the party to around 47.5 per cent (59 seats). Add Act, projected forward to just over 2 per cent (three seats, including Sir Roger Douglas) and United Future, 0.4 per cent (one seat) and the bloc totals 63 seats.
The trend for Labour projects forward to around 36 per cent (45 seats) tomorrow. Add the Greens, projected forward to just under 7 per cent (9 seats) and Jim Anderton, 0.25 per cent (one overhang seat) and the bloc totals 55 seats.
The party vote trend for the Maori Party projects forward to 2.4 per cent. That would entitle it to three seats. But its total is more likely to come from its tally of Maori electorate seats. Marae DigiPoll readings point to five or six seats. Five would give the Maori two more seats than its party vote entitles it to - that is two overhangs. Six would be three overhangs.
The party vote trend for New Zealand First projects forward to just 2.8 per cent. Polls suggest Winston Peters cannot win Tauranga.
Much depends on how many overhangs the Maori Party gets in the final count, due on November 22. If one, as in the last Parliament, a parliamentary majority would be 61. If two or three, it would be 62. Factor in the Anderton overhang as well and the majority would be 63. The National bloc just gets there. Any tightening and it needs the Maori Party.
That actual final averages were: National 47.0 per cent, Labour 34.9 per cent, Greens 8.0 per cent, New Zealand First 3.2 per cent, Act and the Maori Party 2.3 per cent, United Future 0.4 per cent and Anderton 0.25 per cent. The midpoint of the surveys was October 29 but included three polls with midpoints from November 1 to 3.
Test the polls against the iPredict measure - a website-based Victoria University trading system which indexes preferences by the amount paid for stock in the names of parties and politicians. Yesterday, iPredict was rating the National bloc at 52 per cent, the Labour bloc at 43 per cent and giving the Maori Party five seats.
* The poll of polls is a rolling average of the four recently dated polls at each point. The four which make up the last pre-election reading are two Herald DigiPolls, TV1 and TV3. Fairfax Nielsen, published today, was unavailable.
* ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz
