Poll leap turns Dunne into powerbroker

By FRANCESCA MOLD and JOHN ARMSTRONG

A stunning election upset is on the cards with middle-of-the-road United Future skyrocketing from nowhere to almost 7 per cent in a snap Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The poll of 512 people, conducted at the weekend, shows Peter Dunne's party could yet hold the balance of power with up to eight MPs in Parliament. It now has one - Mr Dunne.

The smaller-than-normal sample means the poll has a higher margin of error, 4.3 per cent.

And it is yet to be seen whether United Future's poll surge will continue through to election day on Saturday, particularly as there will be more television focus on the two major parties.

However, with both Labour and the Greens showing a decline, the campaign could be turned on its head.

Despite dropping to close to 40 per cent, Labour could still come close to being able to govern with 50 MPs, the help of two from Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition and the eight United Future MPs.

Prime Minister Helen Clark has already indicated her willingness to consider Mr Dunne as a coalition partner. Last week she said Mr Dunne had made it clear that he no longer had an aversion to supporting Labour in some form.

"So that's an option, but clearly also there is a strong option of a majority coalition Government."

The surprise surge in the poll followed Mr Dunne's commanding performance in last week's Holmes debate, during which 100 undecided voters wielded a "worm" dial showing highly favourable support for his moderate, pro-family stance.

The debate prompted a sudden rise in news coverage, which lifted Mr Dunne's profile and brought a flood of more than 1000 messages of support.

Backing for Mr Dunne had been tracking up in the past few Herald-DigiPoll surveys, but he had not scored higher than 1.1 per cent until today.

Told about the result last night, Mr Dunne said: "Good Lord.Really, that is great news.

"I take all polls with a huge degree of caution, obviously. But I'm pleased by that. I think we are on a roll."

He said the reaction since the "worm" debate had been "out of this world".

"I knew something was going on ... I guess we have just got to hold those people for another seven days, and if possible improve on it. But I will take that result."

Mr Dunne said he had great confidence in all the United Future candidates and no qualms about their ability to make a contribution in Parliament.

The Herald-DigiPoll figures put National on 23.6 per cent, meaning it would bring just 29 MPs into the House - 10 fewer than it has now.

New Zealand First scores higher than in previous polls at 10.2 points, taking it to 13 seats, seven more than it has.

Act rises to 8.l per cent and would have one more MP, taking it to 10.

The Greens experience a drop to 6.9 per cent, but the results mean they would still have one extra MP, taking their number to eight.

The Progressive Coalition would have leader Jim Anderton and the number two on its list, Matt Robson, in the House, supporting a Labour-led Government.

The new United Future MPs coming into the House under the poll findings would include Rongotai candidate Gordon Copeland, a financial consultant who works for the Catholic Archdiocese of Wellington, and Bernie Ogilvy, an economics lecturer and researcher campaigning in Mt Roskill.

Next in would be Ilam candidate Marc Alexander, a restaurateur and spokesman for the Sensible Sentencing Trust; Manukau East candidate Kelly Chal, a careers counsellor with Upskill New Zealand; Murray Smith, a lawyer standing in Hutt South; Larry Baldock, a Tauranga City councillor; and East Coast candidate Judy Turner, a specialist teacher at Whakatane Intermediate School.

The new poll brings no good news for National, as it continues to stagnate around the 23 per cent mark.

But leader Bill English is confident a change in its television advertising, which began last night, will give National a lift this week.

The new advertisements feature Mr English staring straight down the barrel of the camera, talking about key issues such as education and law and order.

He admits that the previous advertisements were not focused enough on issues concerning voters.

"That's why we're changing them, so that this week the voters get a clear view of what I believe about the issues and they can go to the ballot box and vote for what they believe in."

The poll rating comes as National experiences more negative publicity about the role of president Michelle Boag, with mutterings from within that she should be held responsible for the poor performance.

Mr English dismissed the issue yesterday, telling journalists he was not interested in wasting time on gossip - "It's rubbish, it's irrelevant. The public are not interested."

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