It has certainly given Europe the jitters. Not only are they preparing to go it alone, security-wise, but French President Emmanuel Macron is talking about extending his country’s nuclear deterrence to other countries – and Poland’s Donald Tusk is mulling it.
Rubio and Peters have never met but talked by phone on January 24, four days after being sworn in. When Rubio meets Peters, he will have just come from peace talks with Ukraine hosted in Saudi Arabia.
They should click. They are both former lawyers who battled their way to high office through their own wits rather than patronage and both have a reasonable dash of populism and pragmatism.
Rubio, born in Miami of Cuban parents, has been in politics for 25 years. He is arguably the second most important man in Trump’s Administration – at least internationally - at the most important inflection point in global politics for decades.
He certainly appears to be the most grounded in a sometimes chaotic environment.
Rubio has an ability to explain Trump strategy, certainly better than some of the hotheads surrounding Trump, and sometimes better than Trump himself.
That was illustrated after the Oval Office bust-up with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky 11 days ago as Rubio hit the TV networks afterwards to explain from Trump’s perspective what looked like mindless bullying to others.
New Zealand has deliberately laid diplomatically low since then. It has remained firmly on the side of Ukraine but has expressed its support diplomatically – nothing that should draw attention to itself or upset.
It will be his ninth visit as Foreign Minister: three times from 2005 – 2008; three times from 2017 – 2020 and twice last year, during the term of the Biden Administration.
Peters now has to put on his diplomatic dancing shoes for a new administration in Washington - and given the pace of change even in the past few weeks, he may need to learn the quickstep.
So what will Rubio’s officials will be telling him about Peters ahead of the meeting – besides not to use the term Aotearoa?
They will no doubt tell him that Peters sacked New Zealand’s highly respected diplomat last week to London for making disparaging comments about Trump.
They may also tell him that Peters was assiduous in pursuing a free trade deal with the US - and that Trump did not appear averse to it - but that is for another day.
They will say that among the friends of the United States, the New Zealand First leader is personally close to the Trump ethos (anti-woke, anti-DEI) and engaged with the previous Trump Administration with alacrity.
But Trump 2.0 is clearly not the same as Trump 1.0 and Peters’ aim will be to try to find out in which ways. He will be listening.
While he may be personally sympathetic to some of Trump’s agenda, much of it is anathema to New Zealand policy: on Ukraine, suspending funding to USAid, pulling out of the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organisation, and its pursuit of protectionist trade policies.
The biggest uncertainty, however, sits with the United States’ policy on great power rivalry in the Pacific.
New Zealand’s value proposition to the United States since the thaw in diplomatic relations over anti-nuclear policies has been its close relationship with the South Pacific.
It gave strength to Peters’ previous calls for greater engagement of the United States in the Pacific, a call which was being answered under Biden.
But China’s partnership deal with the Cook Islands blindsided and embarrassed New Zealand and could open up a potential foothold for China in our own front yard.
That along with its live-testing of warships in the Tasman Sea are tangible manifestations of its political and military assertiveness that has left New Zealand shocked.
It has created an almost instant licence for a big increase in defence spending.
However, what remains unclear is where the Trump Administration stands on previous US commitments to the Pacific, whether it will remain committed to military and diplomatic presence or expansion, and what role it sees for New Zealand and other friends in the region.
That may be too tall an order for an initial meeting.
But if Peters can gain any clarity on that, he’ll be entitled to dance a jig.
