Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.
OPINION
Alas, when former Prime Minister Sir JohnKey gave Christopher Luxon the recipe for how to be a PM he neglected to hand over the secret sauce: how to be popular.
The early comparisons of Luxon with his political godfather, Key, were always going to be a lingering bane of Luxon’s career. Nothing has haunted him more than the question of Key’s personal popularity.
In successive polls now, not much has changed in the parties’ fortunes since election day.
No sweeping voter regret has swept in: the three coalition parties would still be the coalition parties and in the same rough proportions.
However, what should perhaps have changed since then is Luxon’s connection to voters.
When he first became PM, Luxon said it would be a matter of people getting to know him.
They have now had a chance and, yes, his numbers have improved a tad – but his preferred Prime Minister numbers are tepid compared to his predecessors.
By rights, Luxon and National should be riding high and watching Labour in chaos after its dismal election result.
Instead, 52% of voters think Hipkins should hang around – and about the same number think Luxon is out of touch.
He’s put all his eggs into the delivery basket instead, clearly reckoning that when the time comes to vote, people will be more impressed by whether he’s eased the pressure on their hip pockets, built a new road or sorted out crime.
There is some merit to that, in fact quite a lot.
Recent days have delivered other numbers that will be far more meaningful to voters than the number who think Luxon is out of touch: the first was the 50-basis-point drop in the Official Cash Rate to 4.75%, and the second was the 2.2% inflation rate – the first time it had fallen below 3% in more than three years.
However, the good stuff – new roads and lower mortgage rates and cancer drugs – sell themselves.
Where the Prime Minister’s personal popularity with voters comes into play is in explaining and being forgiven for the bad stuff.
When spending cuts are a big part of your programme, there is going to be a fair bit of bad stuff.
Voters accept a Government doing unpopular things if they see a good reason for it or can be convinced it is necessary.
Luxon himself identified that, saying in response to the polls that he knew the Government’s moves were not popular with everybody, “but people understand that we’re making the tough decisions for the long-term”.
“New Zealanders get it,” he insisted.
However, it needs a strong sales job and if people like you, they’re more inclined to believe you. Likeability equates to trust.
Government ministers have tried to sell the spending cuts as a necessary evil, pointing to the easing in inflation and drops in mortgage rates as the rewards for it and arguing the most the Government can do to help people is to bring the cost of living down.
Selling cuts and frugality is a tricky balance – especially when the things being cut or downgraded or delayed or cut are real things that affect real people. Such as hospitals.
All of this has also raised the rather tedious debate about whether or not Luxon’s personal wealth is an issue in voters accepting he can understand their struggles.
Key too was wealthy but weathered repeated Labour attempts to depict that as a sign of arrogance or entitlement. The voters simply did not equate the Key they saw to the “rich prick” Labour was trying to convince them about.
Nonetheless, Labour has clearly decided Luxon is a different matter, presumably courtesy of focus groups telling them as much and some decisions Luxon has made that Key would have avoided out of political nous.
Labour is trying to capitalise on that and occasional clumsy comments from Luxon have helped. Its recent social media have included a headline of Luxon’s quote “I’m wealthy, I’m sorted” with a shaka emoji and “cool story, bro”.
It has also used liberally and out of context Luxon’s comment of “I just don’t care” when asked about a drop in his polling in a recent Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll.
Luxon had gone on to say his focus was not on how he was doing in a poll but on doing what he said he would do and tackling the problems New Zealand has.
Admittedly, “I just don’t care” is not a great response, even with the fuller answer he gave at the time. He has been careful not to use it again when asked about subsequent polls.
The issue may not be his wealth so much as a few tone-deaf clangers.
The Dunedin Hospital project was downgraded by the Government after a cost blowout. Picture / Rod Emmerson
In talking to people protesting about the hospital in Dunedin, Luxon was brusque when he assured them they would get a rebuilt hospital, just not a bells and whistles one.
He repeatedly used the line it would still be “the most expensive hospital in the Southern Hemisphere” – a ridiculous line given it would also be the newest and almost inevitably cost a lot more than the last one thanks to inflation and the cost of things.
It sounded as if he expected the citizens of Otago to be grateful for the crumbs he was throwing, rather than demanding what National had promised on the campaign.
As for Hipkins, the poll showed people generally thought he should hold onto his job – for now at least. Hipkins noted rather smugly he was more popular in his 10-month stint as Prime Minister last year than Luxon was now.
In response, Luxon and National MPs were restrained and stuck to saying that it was Labour’s decision who to have as leader. That restraint won’t last.
It is a time-honored part of the festivities of being in government to make sure it looks as if the seeds of discontent are sprouting in the Opposition – even if they are not.
Hipkins is fortunate that there is, as yet, no other obvious candidate popping up in the preferred Prime Minister stakes to replace him. Nor does he have someone openly ambitious for the job, even if not necessarily wanted by their caucus or well-suited.
As yet, Labour’s caucus has not crumbled into the cesspit of disgruntlement that sparks leaks and back-stabbing to journalists about their plight.
That may change as the election starts to loom a bit closer, unless the polling changes.
However, Hipkins is so confident he’s even put on a bet on his ability to last until the election and become Prime Minister again. Oddly, he’s drawn hope for that from National going from its 26% result at the 2020 election to 38% and into government in 2023 – trouncing Labour, which was under his leadership by 2023.
