Wagging the dog: the MMP game

By VERNON SMALL and ANDREW lAXON

Imagine it is Sunday and Jim Anderton is winging his way to Wellington for the first crucial meeting with the incoming Prime Minister, Helen Clark.

As expected, Labour has scored three to four times the vote of the Alliance and can be expected to dominate the numbers in the cabinet and the policy agenda for the next three years.

Apart from a short list of Alliance ministers and portfolios, what parts of its agenda can the Alliance hope to promote?

There is broad agreement between the parties in many areas - anti-defection legislation for MPs; raising tax to 39 per cent on personal income above $60,000; returning to a state monopoly on ACC; and reducing the interest burden on students.

Where they differ, Labour's policies broadly point in the same direction as those of the Alliance, but do not go as far.

The Alliance has studied the wording of Labour policy and has taken the pulse of the more left-leaning grassroots party lying behind the caucus. As a result, it will probably concentrate on a number of areas where it senses Labour is "flexible."

Crucial to its long-term strategy will be a series of "wins" that will help to brand the Alliance and which it will be able to sell to the electorate and its supporters.

Unlike New Zealand First, the Alliance may not look for these to all be promised in the first few months.

It may get more credit with the voters if its influence is spread over the three years and is peppered through three Budgets.

So, in no particular order, look for the Alliance to influence Labour on:

BANKS Opening talks with New Zealand Post about using its branch network to provide banking services.

The Alliance wants a Kiwi bank, but something short of that but which still provides a branch network to small communities may be possible and it could be dovetailed into the industry-regional development policy.

INDUSTRY

More money for industry development, where Mr Anderton may be minister.

Labour has earmarked $100 million and the Alliance $200 million, but Labour's finance spokesman, Michael Cullen, has said $100 million is a bare minimum.



TERTIARY EDUCATION

1. A greater move to reduce students' loan-interest burden and a quick start to lowering tertiary fees.

2. Positive noises where no immediate law change is possible, such as on pay equity (an old Helen Clark favourite) and regulation of monopolies.


EMPLOYMENT


1. Four weeks' annual leave. Labour would love to say yes, has backed it at conference level and the effect on the Government's fiscal numbers is low.

2. Twelve weeks' paid parental leave. Another policy that is low in cost (to the Government, especially if employer-funded) and has widespread Labour Party sympathy.

3. A rise in the minimum wage. It is due to be reviewed before Christmas. Labour is reserved about the extent, but the Alliance wants an increase to $7.50 an hour.



STATE HOUSES


Targets for a state house building programme. The Alliance wants 500 new houses each year.

Of course, there is a third possible player in the policy tango on the left. If the Greens either win Coromandel or get above 5 per cent - and both scenarios look likely - they will be in Parliament and may be needed by Labour and the Alliance.

Look then for a stronger push in concert with the Alliance to retain tariffs, balance free trade with fair trade, a tougher line on genetically modified foods, decriminalising marijuana use and pressure for more marine reserves.

Alternatively, Richard Prebble could be taking the taxi to Parliament to meet Jenny Shipley for talks on a National-Act coalition. The two have worked together already and are more of a known quantity than the left grouping, although Act's more radical approach was balanced by the centrists and NZ First defectors towards the end of the past three years.

If Mr Prebble brings a large number of MPs to Wellington with him, Act could push National hard in the following areas.


ASSET SALES


Act would want faster action on asset sales. Television New Zealand would go next year, closely followed by the remnants of the Electricity Corporation and probably NZ Post.


RESEARCH


National's talk of interventionist tax breaks for research and development would fade away.


SUPER


Once the Superannuation 2000 Taskforce reported back, a new heavily rationed superannuation scheme would be introduced for those under 50.

Look out for means testing, raising the eligibility age, lowering the payment or a combination of these three options.


CRIME


National would willingly come up with some form of tougher sentencing to satisfy Act's "non-negotiable" policy of making prisoners serve 80 per cent of their sentences.


TAXES,br>

A strong Act would hold National to its heavily qualified promise to lower the top tax rate from 33c to 30c within three years.


HEALTH


Act's policy of sending public patients to private hospitals as a way of cutting waiting lists is not a big problem for National. But it would probably hang on to its popular NZ First-inspired policy of free doctors' visits and prescriptions for all children under 6.


LAND CLAIMS


Act's other "non-negotiable" demand over Treaty of Waitangi claims would be trickier. A National Party without Sir Douglas Graham would probably accept a 2010 deadline and a fixed budget but might still have difficulty agreeing to no new claims after the end of next year.


EDUCATION


Act would push for an extension of National's pilot scheme - a prototype for Act's education vouchers - which pays for the children of poor families to go to private schools.

Schools, polytechnics and universities would gradually be cut loose from Government control and support.


ACC


ACC would be fully privatised, although this could take more than three years.


EMPLOYMENT


Employers would be allowed to sack workers within a six-month probationary period. Act would push National to scrap the Employment Court and to let workers sell their holidays.


ROADS


National's plans to commercialise roads would be dusted off, with tighter controls to ensure rates cuts from councils no longer needing the money to spend on roads.

Of course, the big unknown is whether the left or the right will need support from NZ First to form a government - and what the price of that support would be.

Winston Peters has made it clear he will oppose Labour's tax rise and any quick move by National to cut taxes.

The other potential stumbling block for both sides is his continued advocacy of compulsory superannuation savings.