Christopher Luxon will not be the only world leader contemplating the best way to go about dealing with Trump and working out what the next four years will mean for their country.
Luxon has never met the man, but he has some advantages compared with former PM Jacinda Ardern, whose time in office coincided with Trump’s last time around – and who was almost immediately dubbed “the anti-Trump”.
One of Luxon’s advantages was mentioned in Trump’s election night speech, a fair chunk of which was dedicated to thanking Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX founder and owner of social media platform X: “We have a new star, a star is born: Elon,” Trump began when thanking his supporter.
That would be the same Elon Musk who has praised Luxon twice on social media since he was elected last year.
First came a tweet voicing relief after Luxon was first elected, although the PM had never met him.
Then – out of the blue last September – a retweet of one of Luxon’s social media clips and Musk’s observation: “Have to say I like the new NZ PM. Good energy and talks directly to the public.”
Having a key backer of Trump thinking nice thoughts will not hurt Luxon in ensuring Trump enters the room with a positive approach.
Luxon is not necessarily comfortable with a strong Republican administration in the US – but he is innately a businessman and will squeeze every advantage he can out of what he has at his disposal.
Now is also the time Luxon’s business background – and the years he spent in America – could turn into a political asset for him.
Luxon is sometimes mocked for his corporate talk back home. But that background, his understanding of the US market and his comfort with the American culture after years spent in the country will help him now.
Luxon will be seeking advice on how to approach Trump – for example, Luxon knows former Trump adviser Chris Liddell fairly well.
Chris Liddell was deputy chief of staff for Donald Trump during his first presidency. Photo / NZME
He’ll back himself to go businessman to businessman with Trump, and is not squeamish about the American triumphalism about wealth and success that seems odd to the New Zealand mentality.
When defending his own property holdings in New Zealand recently (somewhat more modest property holdings than Trump’s) Luxon referred to the tendency in America to celebrate wealth as success, compared with the more tight-lipped view of it in New Zealand.
Then there is Luxon’s position on the political spectrum. On the American political spectrum, he would skew Democrat rather than Republican. However, he is centre-right – and currently the only other such leader in one of the key groupings New Zealand shares with the US: the Five Eyes intelligence grouping.
Given Trump’s promise of punishing tariffs on trade, Luxon and New Zealand businesses will be waiting with bated breath to see how much of that talk was campaign bombast and how much will turn out to be real.
Luxon knows it is not a totally empty threat, given in 2016 Trump’s first move was to see through his promise to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
So New Zealand’s goal will have shifted to a more realistic level: it will no longer be to try to end up better off in terms of the trading conditions with the US.
All the focus for Luxon and New Zealand will be on trying to ensure the trading relationship is not much worse off – and hoping to avoid an all-out trade war.
That could depend very much on how kindly disposed Trump is to the country – something Luxon will be important in securing.
On Thursday, Luxon said it was still too early to say for sure what the trade policy would end up being. He is hoping wise heads will prevail, and persuade Trump that a blanket approach will hurt the US consumer. His hopes are for at least a targeted approach, such as punishing countries Trump is most unhappy with – but leaving New Zealand off the hook.
It has not escaped notice that former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s close relationship with Trump helped secure Australia an exemption from stiff tariffs on aluminium in 2018. New Zealand was not given the same exemption, despite trying.
Luxon will not want to be quite as close as Morrison was. Getting too close to the sun is not necessarily a good idea – but he will not want to be parked on the ice either.
He will be aiming to build enough of a relationship for New Zealand to be treated as a close friend when the tariffs start landing and to be listened to on international affairs.
On election day, Luxon made sure he was quick off the mark to congratulate Trump. Along with a string of other leaders, Luxon issued a social media post soon after Trump declared victory for himself – and before most television networks had made a final call.
Luxon’s popped up about the same time as those of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Australia’s Anthony Albanese, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Those leaders – and those in Europe – have a lot more reason to be nervous than Luxon does, given uncertainty for what it means in international affairs, the relationship with Nato military alliance and support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war.
However, Luxon does have reason to be worried – not only because of Trump’s protectionist stance on trade but also concerning the Indo-Pacific region.
Last time round, Trump paid little heed to the Indo-Pacific. It was former President Joe Biden who reinvigorated the US participation in the region – largely to stymie China’s influence.
PM Christopher Luxon met influential Republican Jason Smith during a visit to Washington DC in July.
Luxon did some groundwork in preparation for a possible return of the Trump on his trip to Washington DC in July. That included two days on Capitol Hill, where his dance card was weighted with high-profile Republicans – trying to get those who might end up with influence in a future Trump administration such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Bill Hagerty and Congressman Jason Smith, who chaired the Ways and Means Committee.
In terms of how the one-on-one relationship with Trump might form, Luxon is a very different kettle of fish to Ardern.
When Ardern was elected about a year after Trump in 2017, she was almost immediately dubbed the “anti-Trump”.
Lest there was any doubt Trump noticed New Zealand leaders, Ardern had said that at the 2017 East Asia Summit in the Philippines, Trump pointed at her and said, “This lady caused a lot of upset in her country,” in a reference to the election. Ardern’s reply was, “No one marched when I was elected”. Ardern was among those who had marched against Trump in 2016, before she was Labour leader.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern meets US President Donald Trump in New York in 2019.
Covid-19 did not improve matters. Trump fired at Ardern for the Covid-19 management in New Zealand. Ardern responded with an arch reference about the death rates in both countries.
In many ways, the relationship went on ice for those years, (partly because of Covid-19 halting travel).
Ardern did not go to the White House, she and Trump had few one-on-ones and they met only in passing at global summits such as for a handshake and a photo at the United Nations General Assembly – a photo which never appeared publicly.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern with US President Joe Biden. Photo / Joy Asico
New Zealand Prime Ministers have it drilled into them that the size of New Zealand means they must have an eye for the chance to get noticed by the likes of the US.
That whole “punching above our weight” slogan that New Zealand likes to pride itself on partly relies on Prime Ministers recognising that and getting involved in the punching.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters answered questions about the US election and what it will mean for New Zealand's relationship with the United States. Video / Mark Mitchell
