Turned tables a quandary for Prebble

By Colin James

Back in 1996, Richard Prebble used to chuckle at the thought of a meeting between Winston Peters' Maori supporters and his conservative old supporters, saying neither side would enjoy the experience and Mr Peters would not enjoy the fallout (they and he didn't).

Now Mr Prebble has a similar quandary. When his newly acquired "redneck" supporters were reminded mid-campaign by Rodney Hide about plans to sell New Zealand Post, National's overnight polling recorded a 4 per cent drop in Act's support.

Mr Prebble will need to face the differences between his new supporters and his "asset-sales" supporters.

He enthused on Saturday night about Act's 1 per cent rise. But he was boasting of 20 seats during the campaign. And, given Act's careful distancing from National and the latter's heavy bleeding in the election, he could logically have expected to pick up some of the disgruntled.

His consolation is that he will be the most effective scourge of Labour. Jenny Shipley was relishing that prospect amid the ruins of her Government on Saturday night, but it is Act that has the real bite.

Mrs Shipley talked of a new direction on election night. But that was what she promised in 1997: she was going to "rock the socks off this place" (Parliament). Then, instead of a new direction, she whizzed off briskly down the old one.

Yet the young ministers she was promoting had identified a new centre-seeking direction: Bill English's mildly reforming new conservatism. The dismay and soul-searching that will now go on in National will lead to his door for deliverance.

Meantime, the "fresh direction" will be Helen Clark's.

Is it fresh? Helen Clark herself on election night harked back to traditional values. The tone will be conservative: she displayed her innate, sometimes immobilising caution by waiting very long to claim a victory obvious hours before.

For all that her vote remains below 40 per cent, it is an authoritative victory. The Alliance has slipped another 2 per cent and will be very much a junior partner.

The Alliance has honed its ambitions to some achievable goals, so it will have something to report to supporters in 2002. But it looks a party in decline and the abrasions of office will not help.

But for decline, look to the member for Tauranga. Houdini seems to have escaped again. Yet with NZ First having only 4.3 per cent of the vote, behind even the luckless Greens, Mr Peters' best hope is as a spoiler. I can't wait.