President Donald Trump speaks during the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony. Photo / AP Photo
President Donald Trump speaks during the FBI National Academy graduation ceremony. Photo / AP Photo
US President Donald Trump is poised to achieve what has eluded him throughout his tumultuous first year in office — a major legislative victory.
With the expected passage in Congress today of a tax-code overhaul that also dismantles part of the Affordable Care Act, Trump hopes to shed the label of legislative loser. But whether the probable win could help him pass other agenda items in 2018 and catapult him onto firmer political ground ahead of the midterm election is an open question.
Trump's tax-cuts achievement could be compromised by the unpopularity not only of the legislation itself but also of his own performance in office. Recent polls show Trump's approval ratings reaching new lows, with a clear majority of Americans holding negative views of his presidency.
And the hyperpartisan divide on Capitol Hill — where the Republican majority in the Senate will drop by one to just 51 out of 100 seats with the arrival of Democrat Doug Jones of Alabama, who defeated Trump-backed Republican candidate Roy Moore — makes it exceedingly difficult for Trump to push other legislative priorities in an election year, such as new infrastructure spending.
Yesterday the House of Representatives passed the bill by 227 to 203 against. No Democrats voted in favour and 12 Republicans voted against. The Senate approved the plan 51 to 48, with all Republicans voting yes and all Democrats and independents voting no.
House leaders scheduled a vote today to send it to Trump.
Many Republicans see the tax plan both as the fulfillment of a decades-long promise as well as one of the first signs that Trump's agenda can overlap with their own. Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam, (R), said that this is a milestone for Trump to show voters he can govern and that electing Republican congressional majorities can yield results.
Trump made the tax plan the primary domestic focus of his entire Cabinet for the past four months.
He has drifted far from the populist promises he made on the campaign trail, with his trade agenda stalled and the tax plan tilting more toward benefits for businesses than promised a year ago. And a lack of focus facing other parts of his job risks lurching the Government into immediate dysfunction. Republicans still do not have a plan to fund government operations after Saturday, and Democrats have only hardened their opposition to Trump.
"This legislative achievement — as it is — is widely unpopular with rank-and-file voters," said John Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist and Trump critic. "It, by itself, is not going to give the President any significant boost or change the way people look at him."
A Quinnipiac University survey last week found that 55 per cent of American voters disapprove of the tax plan, with only 26 per cent approving.
Nearly half of those polled — 43 per cent — said they would be less likely to support a lawmaker who voted for the plan.
President Donald Trump speaks about tax reform. Photo / AP
House Speaker Paul Ryan has predicted that the bill's popularity would rise once Americans understand its impact on their lives, as has Trump.
"Stocks and the economy have a long way to go after the Tax Cut Bill is totally understood and appreciated in scope and size," Trump tweeted.
The tax plan, assuming it passes, will be the centerpiece of Trump's uneven first year as president, along with positive economic indicators.
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has risen roughly 20 per cent since his first day in office, and the unemployment rate has fallen from 4.8 per cent to 4.1 per cent. Inflation remains low. Trump's pick for the Supreme Court, Neil Gorsuch, was confirmed by the Senate, as were 12 US Circuit Court judges, the most during a president's first year in office in more than 100 years. The Administration has launched an aggressive strategy of dismantling dozens of regulations.
It is the tax plan, though, that stands as the most sweeping change, one that could impact nearly every American household and business for much of the next decade.
"I hope the lesson is good policy works, better process works," said Senator Rob Portman, (R).
"I think the process was far better on this than on healthcare, and I hope we all learn from that, including the White House. But it's a victory for him."
White House officials and other Trump allies believe that bulldozing Democrats over the reform gives Trump additional leverage because the tax bill shows he can enact his agenda without help from across the aisle.
