OPINION
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Welcome to Inside Politics. As Donald Trump put it so eloquently last night: “Look what happened! Is this crazy?”
It is an incredible comeback for the former US president, although not unprecedented. In 1893, Grover Cleveland won a non-consecutive second term.
The blame game has begun over why Democrat candidate Kamala Harris failed – from picking the wrong running mate, to having the endorsements of rock stars instead of big-time wrestlers. She could not overcome the potency of the big issues, the cost of living and immigration. And she is an in-betweener – not the incumbent, but not able to divorce herself from the incumbent dissatisfaction voters felt.
Her concession speech this morning was full of soaring and meaningless rhetoric, such as telling her supporters that “only when it is dark enough can you see the stars”, and “the light of America’s promise will always burn bright as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting”.
Trump’s victory speech was notable for its acknowledgement of the huge divisions in the US, and a pledge to “heal” the country. It was a sentiment missing from his speech the first time around.
Unfortunately for the global economy and trading countries such as New Zealand, he also pledged to keep his promises, which include a protectionist agenda and raising tariffs on imports.
The concern around Trump 2.0 is not just in what he promised, but how far he will use his mandate to pursue an unrestrained agenda.
CNN anchor Chris Wallace put it like this: “This is a man who has been impeached twice, a man who has survived two assassination attempts ... four indictments, almost 100 charges and he’s looked like he has walked through all of it. I don’t understand how a man like that couldn’t feel tremendously empowered to do whatever he wants.”
The most pressing issues Trump will have to deal with are the wars in Ukraine, which he has promised to end before he is even inaugurated on January 20, and Israel’s against Hamas and Hezbollah.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon issued a congratulatory statement quickly last night, as did Foreign Minister Winston Peters, who formed a constructive relationship with Trump’s previous vice-president, Mike Pence, on trade issues.
David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill, which is being introduced today, annuls principles previously defined by the Waitangi Tribunal and courts (such as partnership, active protection, participation, good faith and redress) and produces new ones, purportedly based on the Treaty itself.
Some changes have been made from what was proposed in his earlier Cabinet paper, specifically the highly problematic article two – which in the Treaty guarantees tino rangatiratanga. Previously the paper said the principles would recognise the rights that hāpu and iwi had when they signed the Treaty in 1840, but that would differ from other peoples’ rights only when specified in Treaty settlements, other legislation, or agreements with the Crown. That was interpreted as proposing a sweeping extinguishment of customary rights.
It is understood that the bill has stripped it back to include the Treaty settlement caveat but to state that the rights at 1840 will be recognised, but they will be the same rights of all people. That appears to be a softening, but the trouble is that customary rights are not rights available to all people but, unless extinguished in law, available only to people with an established link to a place. So debate over the bill, its meaning and effect will continue for six months and then be voted down by all parties except Act.
It is to National’s advantage that the bill will be introduced early so it can be dispensed with before the 2025 Budget season.
The Waitangi Tribunal’s letter to ministers on Tuesday night – accompanying part two of its interim report on the Treaty Principles Bill – suggests that its relationship with the Government is in tatters. It is the most scathing report ever produced by the tribunal. But then again, there has never before been such a bill that proposes to demolish 50 years of government policy development on the Treaty.
Next Tuesday will be a momentous day at Parliament when the Government issues an apology to survivors of abuse in state care. Before the Prime Minister delivers his apology in the House, seven public sector leaders from Education, Health, Social Development, Police, Crown Law and Oranga Tamariki will deliver apologies, as will the new Public Service Commissioner, Sir Brian Roche.
Christopher Luxon’s favourite minister at the moment is Trade Minister Todd McClay, whose extensive travel programme over the past year is paying dividends. Fresh from a high-quality trade deal with the Gulf Co-operation Council last week, he went to Shanghai this week for a trade expo in which about 80 New Zealand companies participated, and then on to Guangzhou.
Racing Minister Winston Peters was in Australia for both the Melbourne Cup and meetings with his foreign affairs counterparts from Australia, Penny Wong, and India, S. Jaishankar, at an India-focused conference, Raisina Down Under.
And four MPs were in Australia this week for the Commonwealth Parliamentary Conference: Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni, who led the delegation, her colleague Willie Jackson, National’s Dana Kirkpatrick and the Greens’ Lawrence Xu-Nan.
From Question Time yesterday:
Speaker: A point of order, the Rt Hon Winston – the Rt Hon Chris Hipkins.
Rt Hon Chris Hipkins: You should withdraw and apologise for that, Mr Speaker.
Speaker: I do, immediately.
Who is New Zealand’s ambassador to the United States? (Answer below.)
Goes to my ZB colleague who asked the Prime Minister on Monday what Winston Peters’ KPIs were for attendance at the Melbourne Cup. A rare misstep for Jason. It’s not all about bubbles and canapes. It’s a $2 billion industry supporting about 14,000 jobs. And Peters was also meeting India’s foreign minister in Oz.
Goes to Labour MP and former TAB bookie Kieran McAnulty, who refused to criticise Peters’ attendance at the Melbourne Cup and admitted that he, too, had wanted to go when he was racing minister but couldn’t get permission.
OPINION – US election: Donald Trump’s political victory is absolute, but now he faces a showdown with the most powerful institution in the world – the bond market, writes Liam Dann.
ANALYSIS – Waitangi Tribunal: In the wake of former Act leader Richard Prebble’s appointment to the Waitangi Tribunal, Audrey Young profiles the people he’ll be working with – and explains why big changes are coming.
Health conflict: Labour is calling on Deputy PM Winston Peters to apologise for naming a public servant in a statement found to be contrary to Parliament’s rules.
Auckland harbour crossing: The Government has tasked the NZTA with considering two potential options for an additional Waitematā Harbour crossing, with technical work expected to begin in the coming months.
Quiz answer: Rosemary Banks, who also served as ambassador during the previous Trump presidency.
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Expectations tempered around return to surplus in 2027/28.